Huatai Securities pointed out that after Kevin Walsh, the new chairman of the Federal Reserve took office, the financial market's pricing on the new chairman's policy orientation changed from dovish interest rate cuts to a more hawkish short-term position. However, as the July interest rate meeting approaches, the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's next policy are extremely divided. After Walsh abolished forward-looking guidelines, market pricing became more difficult, and the focus of Walsh's game with the market was bound to shift from “listening to what they say” to “watching what they do.” After comprehensively analyzing the experience of previous Federal Reserve presidents, the current macroeconomic environment, and Walsh's goal of gaining credibility, Huatai Securities brought forward the forecast point for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike — predicting that the probability of an interest rate hike in July is slightly higher than half, higher than 40% currently expected by the market. Under the benchmark situation, the probability that Walsh will raise interest rates before September is close to 100%. From the perspective of the new chairman and market game, the overall cost of the July rate hike is lower or lower.

Disclaimer:Webull uses external vendor Google Translation Service for news translations where we endeavour to ensure these are correct, however, we recommend that you please double-check this information accordingly. Webull is not responsible for translation errors or issues.