The J.P. Morgan Chase market intelligence team said that the Fed would release dovish signals and keep current interest rates unchanged, which would be the “best situation” for the stock market. The bank's scenario analysis shows that the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged and release loose arguments on the inflation outlook is 28%; if this happens, the S&P 500 index will rise 0.5% to 1%. The team led by Andrew Taylor wrote in the research report: The worst case scenario with a probability of only 1% would be for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 50 basis points. Under this scenario, the S&P 500 benchmark index would fall by 2% to 4%. Institutional benchmarks predict a 50% chance of a scenario where the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, but releases hawkish arguments and reaffirms that it will continue to be wary of the risk of inflation. Interest rate swap traders' pricing shows that the probability that the Federal Reserve will announce a resolution to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday night is 30%. The J.P. Morgan team said that even if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, if the market believes that the central bank has lost its policy independence, the stock market will still decline.

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