The Zhitong Finance App learned that CICC released a research report saying that the port industry has entered a stage of high-quality development, and the quantitative growth logic is clear, providing stable support for port companies' performance. The port sector as a whole has steady profits and abundant cash flow, and the value of defense allocation is prominent. Some high-quality port companies have both long-term growth and steady profits. The bank suggests focusing on the two main lines of high dividends and high growth.
CICC's main views are as follows:
The port sector has stable volume and price growth, stable operation, and defensive attributes
Port charges are based on market adjustments and are relatively rigid. After each province completed the integration of the “One Province, One Port Group”, the regional competition pattern improved, shifting from price competition to division of labor and collaboration, and profitability steadily increased.
Port cargo volume is naturally hedged by unsynchronized domestic and foreign trade cycles. The bank believes that the price side usually does not experience a sharp decline even in the midst of economic cycle fluctuations. Mature ports often have limited capital expenditure, plenty of cash, and stable dividends can be expected. The bank believes that when the market retracts sharply, the overall sector often outperforms the index and has high-quality defensive attributes.
Foreign trade exports have been strong since the beginning of the year, and port throughput has maintained good growth
From the beginning of the year to mid-July, the cargo throughput of key national ports was +0.7% year-on-year, and container throughput was +6.1% year-on-year, showing impressive performance along the growth rate of overseas trade containers. Benefiting from the resilience of China's export demand and the advantages of the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta manufacturing industries, the bank believes that foreign trade is expected to maintain strong growth in 2026, driving a continuous increase in the throughput of coastal container ports. In particular, ports with a high proportion of foreign trade goods are more flexible in growth. The port industry has entered a stage of high-quality development, and the quantitative growth logic is clear, providing stable support for port companies' performance.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Focus on the two main lines of high dividends and high growth, and choose targets with stable financial indicators. Screening of financial indicators such as comprehensive dividend rate, long-term growth, and ROE. The bank recommended: Tangshan Port, which has steady profits, is at the top of a pure dry bulk port, and has outstanding defensive attributes, once again covering the bank to outperform the industry rating; recommending a global terminal layout and COSCO shipping port with rapidly growing holding terminal profits, and covering the bank for the first time to outperform the industry rating; China Merchants Port, which maintains an outperforming industry rating; and the leading global container port and port with impressive growth rate of supporting services, for the first time to cover the group Outperforms industry ratings.
risk
The risk of macroeconomic and trade demand fluctuations, increased regional competition and downward pressure on tariffs, geopolitical and overseas business risks.