According to Woofun AI, the price of HYPE, the native token of Hyperliquid, has fallen below the key psychological and technical support level of $57. Meanwhile, Grayscale (Grayscale) published an optimistic valuation analysis based on Hyperliquid's 2027 expected earnings data, but there is a significant divergence between the model values and current investor positions.
Judging from the deep deconstruction of technical aspects and capital flows, HYPE fluctuated around $57 for most of the period from the end of June to mid-July, and the strength of support in this area far exceeded the single Fibonacci level. The 100-day moving average (around $57.3), which previously provided support, is now above the price and is a potential resistance; investors buying around $57 may use a rebound to reduce their positions, and sellers see it as a new entry point. The downward trend line extending from the July high continued to exert pressure, and the 50-day moving average at $64 was above the trend line. The weekly ETF data released by SosoValue was positive from May 15 to July 10, with inflows of $57.19 million in the week of May 29, peaking at $113.6 million on June 26, and $10.36 million in inflows for the week of July 10.
However, since then, the data turned negative, with a net outflow of 7.26 million US dollars on July 17 and rising to 8.61 million US dollars on July 24. The weak trend continued until this week, with $2.89 million being withdrawn on July 27 and outflows of $1.24 million on July 28. The total net outflow for the week reached US$4.14 million.
Although the absolute value is less than the volume of inflows in May and June, the weakening demand for ETFs coincided with HYPE falling below $57 and the 100-day moving average. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that if the price fails to recover lost ground, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level below $52 will be the next line of defense. Once broken, the stock price may fall to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level near $45, which intersects with the support levels formed in April and May.
Grayscale research leader Zack Pandel proposed in a July 28 report that HYPE should be priced using 'revenue per token' rather than speculative attributes. Grayscale expects Hyperliquid to generate $1 billion in revenue in 2027, with earnings between $3.25 and $3.75 per token given the estimated circulating supply of between 270 million and 310 million units. At the current price of around $54, the expected return multiples are between 15 and 18 times. Pandel compared this to many listed fintech and cryptocurrency companies with profit multiples of 20 to 40 times, and believes HYPE is relatively cheap. The calculation assumes that Hyperliquid maintains strong trading activity and stable fee revenue; otherwise, the decline in revenue per token will drive up the profit multiplier.
In addition, about 550,000 HYPE tokens enter the market every month due to contributor allocations. If circulation grows too fast, future revenue sharing will increase selling pressure.
The HYPE price is currently below the two major moving averages, and ETF funding flows have been negative for the third consecutive week. The grayscale model looks at the 2027 situation, while the charts and money flow data reflect the current situation.
If the stock price can fluctuate between $57 and $57.3, it can go back above the Fibonacci level and the 100-day moving average that was previously broken, causing HYPE to return to a consolidated range, which suggests that the trend is stabilizing. The more critical testing point is $64, where there is a 50-day moving average and another Fibonacci level above the lower price high formed since the beginning of July. If it breaks through this point, HYPE will once again stand above both moving averages to challenge the current downtrend. If ETF funding also turns positive at this point, it will further support the optimistic view. The valuation model and price chart answer different questions: as long as HYPE prices continue to fall in the next few months, Grayscale's valuation logic still holds true because falling prices will increase the expected return multiples; and the above price level determines when the market trend matches this analytical view.