Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
Tradeweb Markets typically reports before market open, meaning Day 0 represents the first full trading session where investors react to results, while Day +1 captures follow-through momentum.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | +$5.76 (+5.13%) | $11.21 (9.98%) | -$4.87 (-4.12%) | $4.43 (3.75%) |
| 2026-02-05 | +$8.71 (+8.64%) | $11.20 (11.11%) | +$2.60 (+2.37%) | $4.17 (3.81%) |
| 2025-10-30 | -$1.29 (-1.22%) | $4.96 (4.70%) | +$1.24 (+1.19%) | $2.82 (2.71%) |
| 2025-07-30 | +$7.81 (+5.65%) | $9.88 (7.14%) | -$7.57 (-5.18%) | $6.03 (4.13%) |
| 2025-04-30 | +$0.92 (+0.67%) | $7.64 (5.56%) | -$0.23 (-0.17%) | $3.52 (2.54%) |
| 2025-02-06 | -$1.76 (-1.41%) | $5.25 (4.19%) | +$0.93 (+0.75%) | $2.50 (2.02%) |
| 2024-10-30 | -$2.66 (-2.02%) | $4.19 (3.19%) | -$1.79 (-1.39%) | $2.57 (2.00%) |
| 2024-07-25 | -$3.11 (-2.88%) | $3.22 (2.98%) | +$1.85 (+1.76%) | $2.23 (2.12%) |
| Avg Abs Move | 3.45% | 6.11% | 2.12% | 2.88% |
Historical price action around earnings reveals significant volatility, with an average absolute Day 0 move of 3.45% and an average Day 0 range of 6.11%. The most recent earnings release on April 29, 2026, saw the stock surge 5.13% on Day 0 with a range of 9.98%, followed by a -4.12% pullback on Day +1, illustrating the potential for sharp reversals.
The pattern shows considerable variability in both direction and magnitude. Strong positive reactions occurred in February 2026 (+8.64% Day 0) and July 2025 (+5.65% Day 0), while more muted responses characterized other quarters. Day +1 moves average 2.12% in absolute terms with a 2.88% range, suggesting continued volatility in the session following the initial reaction. Investors should prepare for potential swings in either direction, with historical precedent supporting moves well beyond the typical 3-4% range.
Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 08/21/26 (DTE 23) |
| Expected Move | $2.64 (2.44%) |
| Expected Range | $105.54 to $110.82 |
| Implied Volatility | 32.81% |
The options market is pricing an expected move of 2.44% (±$2.64) for the August 21 expiration, which is notably below the stock's average historical Day 0 move of 3.45% and well under the 6.11% average Day 0 range. This suggests options traders may be underpricing potential volatility, particularly given TW's recent pattern of larger post-earnings swings including the 5.13% Day 0 move last quarter.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Analyst sentiment toward Tradeweb Markets has improved over the past month, with the consensus rating rising to 3.88 (Buy) from 3.75. The current breakdown shows 6 Strong Buys, 2 Moderate Buys, and 8 Holds, with no sell ratings among the 16 analysts covering the stock. This represents a shift from one month ago when there were 5 Strong Buys, 2 Moderate Buys, and 9 Holds.
The average price target of $128.50 implies 18.77% upside from the current price of $108.18, suggesting analysts see meaningful appreciation potential even after the stock's recent recovery from its June lows. However, the wide dispersion in targets — ranging from a low of $105 to a high of $201 — reflects differing views on the company's valuation multiple and long-term growth prospects. The high estimate of $201 implies 85.8% upside and likely reflects a bull case centered on market share gains and margin expansion, while the low estimate of $105 sits just below current levels, suggesting some analysts see limited near-term upside.
The improving sentiment trend, combined with the concentration of buy ratings and lack of any sell recommendations, indicates the analyst community is generally constructive on TW's prospects heading into this earnings report. The upgrade activity and rising price targets suggest growing confidence in the company's ability to sustain its growth trajectory.
Part 4: Technical Picture
The Barchart Technical Opinion shows a 40% Sell signal, representing a significant improvement from 72% Sell one week ago and 88% Sell one month ago. This dramatic shift reflects the stock's recent recovery, though the signal remains in bearish territory heading into earnings.
Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-term (50% Sell): Moderate sell signal suggests near-term momentum remains tentative despite recent gains
- Medium-term (50% Sell): Neutral-to-bearish reading indicates the intermediate trend has not yet fully reversed
- Long-term (50% Sell): Moderate sell signal reflects the stock's position below longer-term moving averages
Trend Characteristics: The signal strength is characterized as Weak with direction at Weakest, indicating the bearish trend is losing conviction but has not yet transitioned to a bullish setup.
The stock is currently trading at $108.18, positioned above its 5-day ($102.83), 10-day ($101.19), 20-day ($100.64), and 50-day ($100.66) moving averages, but below its 100-day ($109.47) and 200-day ($109.20) moving averages. This configuration suggests a short-term recovery is underway, but the stock has yet to reclaim its longer-term uptrend.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $102.83 | 50-Day MA | $100.66 |
| 10-Day MA | $101.19 | 100-Day MA | $109.47 |
| 20-Day MA | $100.64 | 200-Day MA | $109.20 |
The technical setup presents a mixed picture heading into earnings. While the stock has bounced sharply from its June lows near $91.42 and reclaimed all short-term moving averages, it remains below the critical 100-day and 200-day moving averages that define the longer-term trend. The improving technical opinion signal suggests selling pressure is abating, but the stock needs to clear the $109-110 zone to confirm a bullish reversal. Given the historical volatility around TW earnings and the stock's position just below key resistance, the setup is cautiously constructive — a strong beat and guidance could propel the stock through overhead resistance, while any disappointment could send it back toward the $100-102 support zone where the short-term moving averages cluster.