Recent coverage of Southwest Gas Holdings (SWX) has focused on expectations for its upcoming earnings report and its role as a low beta defensive stock, as the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged.
See our latest analysis for Southwest Gas Holdings.
Despite recent attention around potential earnings outperformance and its profile as a defensive utility, Southwest Gas Holdings' share price has been relatively steady overall, with a year to date share price return of 12.66% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 19.06%.
If you are comparing Southwest Gas Holdings with other potential ideas in the current rate backdrop, it can help to scan companies exposed to long term infrastructure and energy themes such as 35 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks
After a steady run that has already delivered a 12.66% year to date return, the choice with Southwest Gas Holdings now is simple: lean into the current price or wait and hope valuation offers a cleaner entry point next.
Most Popular Narrative: 9% Undervalued
Against the last close at $90.30, the most followed valuation view for Southwest Gas Holdings points to a fair value of $99.25, built on long term utility network growth and regulated returns.
Analysts are assuming Southwest Gas Holdings's revenue will grow by 10.8% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 13.4% today to 18.0% in 3 years time.
If you want to understand why this regulated gas utility is priced for higher earnings power, the narrative focuses on steadier cash flows, richer margins and a valuation multiple that assumes those projections hold.
Result: Fair Value of $99.25 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, there are clear pressure points for Southwest Gas Holdings, including faster decarbonization policies and any cost overruns on large projects such as Great Basin.
Find out about the key risks to this Southwest Gas Holdings narrative.
Another View on Southwest Gas Holdings' Valuation
The first narrative leans on long term earnings projections to suggest Southwest Gas Holdings is 9% undervalued at a fair value of $99.25. On plain P/E numbers, however, SWX trades at 27.4x, compared with a fair ratio of 22.4x, the global gas utilities average of 13.9x, and a peer average of 17.3x.
That is a wide gap. It implies investors are paying a premium today that could compress if sentiment cools or if results fall short of expectations. It raises a simple question for you as a shareholder or potential buyer: Is this premium something you are comfortable paying for the current story?
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
With sentiment clearly mixed around Southwest Gas Holdings, it makes sense to move quickly, review the underlying data and decide where you stand. To help frame both sides of the debate in one place, take a closer look at the 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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