The Zhitong Finance App learned that CICC released a research report saying that currently emerging demand for AI, high-end equipment, etc. is growing rapidly, and profit margins in key areas of China's tungsten industry chain, such as downstream and midstream, continue to improve. Domestic tungsten prices showed signs of rising again after falling and stabilizing in July, and the overseas premium rate has also reached a record high. The bank believes that China's leading tungsten industry is expected to see a sharp rise in volume and price, and the current valuation level is already very attractive.
CICC's main views are as follows:
Downstream: Emerging demand for AI PCBs and tungsten hexafluoride continues to rise
The bank believes that the first is AI-driven reassessment of PCB micro drilling and bar requirements. Prismark predicts a CAGR of +8% for the global PCB market in 2025-2030, with the server/storage sector CAGR as high as +17.2%. Nvidia Rubin products may further expand PCB value and drill bit requirements. Second, the storage boom continues to improve. In May of this year, TrendForce raised the 2026/2027 global memory market forecast by 61%/52% to 889.3 billion US dollars/1.28 trillion US dollars, +296%/+44% year-on-year. Third, global nuclear fusion development is accelerating, which is expected to further drive the growth of demand for tungsten. Fourth, demand for high-end equipment is expected to continue to rise.
Midstream: Volume and price in the domestic midstream sector have risen sharply, and leading companies are actively deploying high-end production capacity
First, the booming downstream sector is driving up the domestic midstream processing fee center. Currently, the average domestic APT/tungsten powder YTD processing fee is 6.6 and 301,000 yuan/ton, +331% and +447%, respectively, compared with 2025 levels. Second, China's total exports of tungsten products are tight, and the domestic export structure is shifting to high value-added products. The relationship between supply and demand at the overseas midstream smelting end is already scarce, and overseas premiums have reached a new high. It is worth noting that leaders in China's tungsten industry already have strong integration capabilities. Leading enterprises are actively promoting capital operations, increasing resource injection and midstream key production capacity construction, and further enhancing industrial competitiveness and performance flexibility.
Price: Tungsten prices are expected to regain their upward trend, reaffirming the value of leading configurations in the tungsten industry
In the short term, the conditions for stronger domestic tungsten prices are gradually accumulating, and prices showed signs of rising again in July. The tight trend of global tungsten supply and demand remains unchanged in the medium to long term. The bank expects a global tungsten supply and demand gap of 2.2/2.4/2.4/25,000 metal tons in 2026-2029, accounting for 13%-14% of total global tungsten consumption.
risk
Demand fell short of expectations; project progress fell short of expectations; global tungsten supply increased beyond expectations.