The Zhitong Finance App learned that CICC released a research report stating that it will maintain MGM China's (02282) EBITDA forecasts for 2026 and 2027. The company's current stock price corresponds to 6x 2026e and 5x 2027EEV/Ebitda. The bank maintains a “outperforming industry” rating and a target price of HK$13.80, corresponding to 8 times 2026e and 7 times 2027eEV/eBitDA. The target price has 25% upside compared to the current stock price.
CICC's main views are as follows:
2Q26 results were better than expected
MGM China announced 2Q26 results: net revenue of HK$8.625 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, and recovered to 156% in 2Q19; adjusted EBITDA was HK$2,327 billion, down 7% year on year, down 5% month on month, and recovered to 160% in 2Q19, roughly in line with VisibleAlpha's agreed expectations of HK$2,386 billion, and better than the bank's forecast of HK$2,251 billion. The bank believes that MGM China's performance was mainly driven by an increase in total gaming revenue market share (16.4% in 2Q26, 15.5% compared to 1Q26), particularly MGM Cotai (10.1% in 2Q26, compared to 9.3% in 1Q26).
Development trends
The business volume performance was steady in April and May 2026, but the 2026 World Cup had a negative impact on the business volume in June and July. The bank expected this to be a short-term disturbance; management pointed out that with the end of the World Cup at the end of July 2026, business volume quickly rebounded and exceeded the 1Q26 level. The current trend continues, and the company's market share is expected to remain at the mid-teens level.
The Macau market has always been fiercely competitive, and MGM's strategy focuses on achieving differentiation through product quality, service, and product portfolio rather than relying on rebates. The bank believes that this strategy, along with the company's active revenue management of gaming tables and slot machine deployments, will help support stable and strong EBITDA profit margins; the bank believes that management's ability to respond quickly and effectively to market changes in service and product supply is MGM's long-term structural advantage.
Risk warning: Growth is slower than expected; increased competition in the industry has led to loss of market share.