The Zhitong Finance App learned that in the long journey of quantum computing from laboratories to commercialization, IBM (IBM.US) dropped a landmark bombshell. The century-old tech giant announced on Thursday that its research has officially proven “Quantum Advantage” (Quantum Advantage) — quantum computers can perform computational tasks beyond the capabilities of traditional computers, and that these results can be verified in a rigorous way. Meanwhile, IBM CEO Arvind Krishna gave the clearest timeline so far: quantum computing will have a “measurable impact” on revenue and profits in 2028 or 2029, and will release trillion-dollar amounts of value by the end of the 2030s.
The “quantum advantage” has arrived: trusted computing beyond supercomputers
On July 30, IBM and quantum software startup AlgorithmiQ jointly released a breakthrough study to achieve a “trusted quantum advantage” in simulating heterogeneous quantum materials (heterogeneous quantum materials) for the first time.
The core challenge of the research is: when the calculation results of quantum computers cannot be verified by any classical computer, how to establish trust in the results? IBM and AlgorithmIQ's research team solved this problem by developing a new verification framework — proving that quantum results remain stable under different conditions through noise manipulation, controlled noise injection, and execution across multiple IBM quantum processors, thus providing a path for independent verification.
The study simulated the operator Loschmidt Echo (Operator Loschmidt Echo) — a key indicator of how tracking information and energy propagate in heterogeneous disordered quantum materials such as battery electrolytes and chemical catalysts. This model was designed to be experimental on current quantum hardware, but poses a serious challenge to leading classical simulation techniques. The results are shocking: since the problem was published on the “Quantum Dominance Tracker” eight months ago, no classical method has been able to reliably produce results in this problem domain.
Jay Gambetta, head of IBM's research department, declared in a statement: “We have entered an era of quantum superiority. Scientists can count on this result. At present, the focus has moved from simply benchmarking systems to using these systems to carry out scientific research and explore practical applications.”
On the same day, IBM also jointly released two other quantum advantage studies with the University of Chicago and Israel's Qedma, respectively, involving 70 logical qubits of doped Clifford sampling and 74 qubits of two-dimensional Floquet Ising dynamics simulation. Among them, in collaboration with the University of Chicago, the IBM quantum system completed the sampling task in about 15 minutes, while leading classical simulation methods faced “unfeasible operating times.” Research with Qedma directly defeated Japan's flagship supercomputer “Fugaku” (Fugaku), marking the first time that commercial hardware has achieved quantum superiority in physical issues.
Start on the trillion track: 2028 revenue inflection point, worth a trillion dollars in the 2030s
At the same time as the technological breakthrough, Krishna gave the most aggressive commercialization timeline to date. He made it clear on CNBC: “I think in 2028 or 2029, you'll see a measurable impact on our revenue and profits. By the end of the 2030s, we are now pretty sure this will be worth a trillion dollars.”
Krishna further explained the practical application prospects of quantum computing: IBM quantum computers have revealed material properties that researchers cannot observe using traditional calculation methods. These discoveries could eventually lead to better batteries, more advanced materials, more efficient fusion energy, and smarter medicines. “Quantum computers can do things better, faster, and cheaper in ways that are currently unattainable by traditional computers.”
Although skeptics point out that challenges such as high error rates, hardware complexity, and scalability still limit the commercialization process of quantum computing, Krishna emphasized that IBM has made “meaningful progress” in practical applications. Wedbush analysts believe the quantum business could bring IBM “billions of dollars in annual sales and high profit margins” in the mid-2030s.
National Power Endorsement: 1 billion US dollar quantum foundry and 10 billion investment plan
Behind IBM's quantum ambitions stands the “visible hand” of the US government. In May of this year, IBM and the US Department of Commerce announced the signing of a letter of intent to build Anderon, the first semiconductor foundry dedicated to quantum chips in the US. Under the agreement, the US Department of Commerce will provide $1 billion in incentive funding through the CHIPS program, and IBM will match $1 billion in cash investments and transfer large amounts of intellectual property, assets, and professional talent. Based in Albany, New York, Anderon will operate a 300mm quantum wafer manufacturing plant.
US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick stressed in a statement that this project will “strengthen the local industrial base and create thousands of high-paying jobs.” IBM has previously announced that it will invest more than $10 billion in quantum computing research and development over the next five years. The goal is to deliver the world's first large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computer “IBM Quantum Starling” in 2029. The US Congress is also promoting a 2 billion US dollar quantum special funding program, of which up to 1 billion US dollars may go to IBM.
The “redemption narrative” after the stock price plummeted 25%: Can quantum computing reshape trust?
However, the grand narrative of quantum computing does not hide IBM's immediate market difficulties. On July 14, IBM's stock price experienced the biggest one-day drop in the company's history — a sharp drop of 25%. Previously, the biggest drop in IBM's stock price was on October 19, 1987, when it fell 23.7%. The trigger was IBM's preliminary results for the second quarter disclosed in advance: revenue is expected to be US$17.2 billion, an increase of only 1%. Among them, revenue from the software business increased by 5%, the consulting business remained flat, and the infrastructure business fell 7%.
Krishna attributed the poor performance to customers shifting capital expenditure to server, storage, and memory purchases. In his letter to investors, he confessed: “In the last few weeks of June, we saw customers shift quarterly capital expenses to server, storage, and memory purchases to ensure tight infrastructure before expected prices rise.” This trend is highly consistent with the current industry environment where demand for AI hardware is exploding and software spending is being squeezed.
In the interview, Krishna tried to calm investor sentiment. He said those deferred deals were only postponed rather than cancelled: “The good news is that around 40% of these deals were completed within three to four weeks... which indicates that they were only postponed, not cancelled.”
Up to now, IBM's stock price has only recovered about 2% from its low after the collapse. Repairing the market's confidence in this century-old tech giant clearly requires more solid evidence than “40% trading has resumed.”