Fidelity believes that the Federal Reserve is likely to delay until December before starting the interest rate hike cycle, provided that inflation and labor market data continue to be strong. However, economic data and geopolitical developments in the next two months may still re-fuel the risk of inflation, so the possibility of a rate hike in September has not been completely eliminated. More importantly, this decision highlights the policy characteristics of the Walsh era: in the absence of a clear policy framework and forward-looking guidance, the Federal Reserve will rely more on immediate economic data and changes in the financial environment to make judgments.

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