The Zhitong Finance App learned that Zhongyuan Securities released a research report saying that in July, the brokerage index hit a new high since it bottomed out in early June, but then the fluctuation fell back and turned into a horizontal range of fluctuations. The intensity of the short-term trend was second only to the Shanghai Securities 50 Index, which was significantly stronger than the Technology Growth Index, showing strong sector resilience as market fluctuations increased. After a steady recovery in the equity market, the brokerage sector still has expectations of gradually recovering its decline during the year, and actively maintains continuous attention to policies, markets, and the brokerage sector. It is recommended to focus on A+H shares of leading listed brokerage firms, small and medium-sized listed brokerage firms that gradually have differentiated competitive advantages, listed brokerage firms with outstanding comprehensive brokerage business strengths, and listed brokerage firms whose individual stock valuations are significantly lower than the sector's average valuation.
The main views of Zhongyuan Securities are as follows:
Review of the stock market in the brokerage sector in June 2026
The brokers' index changed significantly from weak to strong in June. CITIC Secondary Industry Index Securities II rose 8.87% throughout the month, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index (up 1.78%) by 7.09 percentage points. The rise and fall ratio of the brokerage sector improved markedly in June, but the internal segmentation of the sector clearly intensified. The number of individual stocks that outperformed the brokerage index for the whole month declined further month-on-month, and the average P/B fluctuation range of the sector moved up to 1.173-1.332 times.
Core market factors affecting the monthly operating results of listed brokerage firms in June 2026
1. Equity cools down month-on-month, fixed income fluctuates widely, and proprietary business will decrease by a certain amount month-on-month. 2. The average monthly daily stock turnover declined slightly, the total volume of transactions increased slightly, and the brokerage business boom reached a new high. 3. The balance of the two loans continued to reach record highs, and the average daily balance of the two loans increased during the year. 4. The scale of equity and debt financing simultaneously achieved significant growth, and the total volume of investment banking business in the industry rebounded markedly from month to month.
Listed brokers' performance forecasts for July 2026
Self-employment: The equity self-operation environment has reached a freezing point, the fixed income self-operation environment remains stable, and self-operated business will be clearly pressured by equity self-operation. Brokerage: The average monthly daily stock turnover will decline slightly from month to month, the total monthly transaction volume will remain the second highest during the year, and the brokerage business boom will decline slightly from month to month.
Two Loves
The balance of the two loans in the entire market has declined rapidly from a historical high, and the marginal contribution of the two finance business to the monthly operating performance of listed brokerage firms will decline significantly from month to month. Investment banking: The scale of equity financing will grow further, debt financing will decline slightly month-on-month, and the total volume of investment banking business will continue to grow month-on-month. Overall operating performance: Based on the latest changes in various elements of the current market, it is expected that the volatility of the overall monthly operating performance of the parent company of the listed brokerage firm in July 2026 will increase significantly and be under obvious pressure, and the total volume will drop to a low level within the year.
Risk warning: 1. The weakening equity and fixed income market environment has led to a decline in the operating performance of listed brokerage firms; 2. Risk of short-term stock price fluctuations; 3. The policy effects of the new round of capital market reforms fall short of expectations