09:10 AM EDT, 07/31/2026 (MT Newswires) -- RBC Capital Markets on Friday made changes to its forecasts for Shell (SHEL.L, SHELL.AS) amid a model update as it took into account its latest commodity price deck. The EPS projections for 2026 and 2027 were reduced by 2% and 13%, respectively, on the back of a lower oil deck. Estimates for the British oil and gas major's net production and its upstream division were also downwardly revised for 2026 through 2028. RBC rates the stock at sector perform, with a price target of 40 pounds sterling. "Shell expects to close the [ARC Resources] transaction in 3Q, and this should therefore be additive to a strong FCF base into 4Q and beyond. Shell's commitment to the 40-50% CFFO payout ratio remains, and on our numbers, this suggests a buyback raise to $3.5-4bn into 4Q," the research firm said. "Conversely, Shell could opt to raise its dividend more materially than the typical 4% increase. Both of these would support the shares and investment case, in our view."

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