The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Securities released a research report saying that looking forward to the second half of the year, the alcohol sector is already stabilizing at the bottom. According to Wind, the current dividend rate in the alcohol sector is about 4%, and some leading wine companies have dividend rates of more than 5%, which has a high allocation cost ratio. With the restoration of liquor sales, inventory, and fundamentals, and the catalyst for the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day peak season, the sector is expected to be boosted; in terms of beer, it is judged that the industry will recover moderately in the second half of the year, compounding the effects of a low base, and the fundamentals of the industry will be repaired to a certain extent.
CITIC Securities's main views are as follows:
Individual stocks: In the first quarter of 2026, securities companies significantly reduced their holdings, and Central Huijin's holdings stabilized.
Judging from the perspective of the top ten shareholders, it is quite obvious that since 2026, securities companies have reduced their holdings in some leading liquor and beer stocks. Judging from securities company holdings, securities company holdings in leading liquor and beer stocks remained unchanged from 2022 to the end of 2025, but since 2026, securities company shares in some leading liquor and beer stocks have declined to varying degrees; in contrast, Huijin Asset Management's alcohol holdings are relatively stable. As of 2026Q1, Central Huijin Asset Management's holdings in some leading liquor and beer stocks remained unchanged. Overall, the reduction in securities holdings has had a significant impact on stock prices.
ETF: Since 2026, key broad-based ETFs have had large redemptions, driving the liquor sector to continue to sell net.
23 core broad-based ETFs were screened to carry out redemption statistics (in addition to 10 broad-based products with heavy alcohol stocks, including GEM ETFs, Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETFs, etc.), to determine the overall ETF capital flow in the entire market. In terms of overall funding, the broad-based ETFs mentioned above continued to experience net redemptions during the year. As of the end of July, the cumulative net redemption amount reached 1.59 trillion yuan, and the 26Q1/Q2 redemptions of 7426/346.5 billion yuan respectively. Basically, a large number of redemptions have been completed. At the same time, after sorting through extremely large transaction data with a net redemption scale of over 10 billion yuan in a single day, it was found that the pace of change in this type of transfer capital is highly synchronized with the CITIC Liquor Index market.
The peak of sales ended at the end of June, and the marginal improvement in capital is expected to drive the alcohol sector to pick up.
The peak of ETF redemptions is basically over, and marginal capital inflows may form a strong catalyst after the release of pressure to reduce holdings in the early stages is completed. From July 1 to 30, 2026, the CITIC index for liquor/liquor/beer increased by 13.8%/13.9%/15.6% respectively. The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, China Securities 1000 and Science and Technology Innovation 50 indices rose and fell by -2.2%/-7.7%/-19.7%/-25.3% respectively during the same period, while alcohol outperformed 16.0%/21.5%/33.5%/39.1% respectively.
Risk factors:
Macro consumer demand falls short of expectations; competition in the liquor and beer industry intensifies; price market performance of core products in the liquor industry falls short of expectations; channel inventory risks in the liquor industry; food consumption recovery falls short of expectations; food safety issues, etc.