The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Securities released a research report saying that the policy signals were intense this week, and the four departments' “Implementation Opinions on Improving the Governance of Financial Institutions” compacted the responsibilities of shareholders and the “key minority”, which is beneficial to the sustainable development of commercial banks. In terms of capital, broad-based ETFs changed from net redemptions to continuous net purchases in January, and southbound capital continued to increase their holdings, helping A-share and H-share banks to strengthen at the same time during the week. Looking further, from a fundamental perspective, bank interest spreads are expected to perform well in the second quarter, and the capital market and wealth business drive revenue growth. Against this backdrop, bank revenue growth will maintain a stable and good trend, and profit growth may rise slightly. From an investment perspective, the banking sector continued the positive trend since July last week, but the index fluctuated greatly during the week due to market style. It is expected that the volatility of A-shares will remain high in the next two weeks, and the relative earnings of the banking sector may weaken; however, long-term logic such as stable business patterns and macroeconomic narratives will continue to be interpreted, and the absolute profit margin will continue throughout the year.
Matters:
On July 31, the General Administration of Financial Supervision, the People's Bank of China, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued the “Implementation Opinions on Improving the Governance of Financial Institutions” (hereinafter referred to as the “Implementation Opinions”); on July 30, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to deploy economic work for the second half of the year; recently, the Banking Financial Management Registration and Custody Center released the “China Banking Wealth Management Market Half Year Report (2026)”.
CITIC Securities's main views are as follows:
The four departments jointly issued a document to improve the governance of financial institutions and consolidate shareholder admission and “key minority” responsibilities.
The “Implementation Opinions” consist of 9 parts and 22 articles. It is clear that by 2029, a financial institution governance mechanism with clear boundaries of authority and responsibility, compatible incentives and restrictions, strict risk management, and efficient operation standards will basically be formed.
1) Shareholder governance is the biggest increase. The first proposal is to establish a “firewall” for industrial capital and financial capital, strictly prohibit illegal cross-industry operations, excessive leverage, or serious untrustworthy entities from becoming major shareholders or actual controllers, and establish mechanisms for shareholders' improper income recovery and risk liability after the fact;
2) The supervisory side strengthens penetration and accountability. Implement penetrating supervision of shareholders' equity and related transactions, and lifelong accountability for major issues. The document focuses on the integration and upgrading of existing governance systems, which helps commercial banks to develop sustainably.
The Politburo meeting combined efforts to improve efficiency and build a strong barrier against risk, and the deployment of risk was beneficial to banks' asset quality expectations.
The conference called for “giving full play to the effectiveness of various inventory policies, planning and introducing pragmatic and effective incremental policies in a timely manner, and increasing countercyclical adjustment efforts.”
1) At the quantitative level, “speeding up fiscal expenditure and the use of bond funds” and promoting “dual” and “two new”, government bonds and supporting financing are expected to accelerate, supporting investment in public credit in the second half of the year;
2) At the price level, “comprehensively apply and adjust monetary policy tools in a timely manner, and optimize the implementation of fiscal and financial coordination to promote domestic demand policies”. It is expected that the logic of stabilizing bank interest spreads is expected to continue under financial collaboration, prioritizing quantitative tools, and choosing a price-oriented tool camera;
3) At the risk level, debt conversion was changed from “promotion” to “implementation”, local small and medium-sized financial institutions “reform and insurance reduction and quality improvement” rose to the level of the political situation, and capital market statements were upgraded to “enhance resilience and confidence,” and the factors that suppress bank asset quality and valuation are expected to be further mitigated.
Funding side: Broad-based ETFs were converted to net subscriptions, and southbound capital continued to increase bank holdings.
1) In terms of ETFs, statistics include 18 key broad-based ETFs in the banking sector. The net inflow of redemptions was about 33.7 billion yuan in the current week (2026/7/27-2026/7/31), driving net bank stock purchases of about 1.7 billion yuan based on the redemption basket bank weight. The five trading days were all net purchases; looking further, the net purchase of key broad-based ETFs continued in the past four weeks, with a cumulative net inflow of about 180 billion yuan, reversing the large net redemption trend in June, and passive capital was further mitigated.
2) On the southbound side, as of July 31, the market value of the Southbound Capital Bank sector was HK$1343.5 billion, up HK$82.1 billion (+6.5%) from last week. The share of industry holdings increased by 0.88 ppts to 22.55%. The increase in market capitalization was mainly contributed by rising stock prices. Increased holdings of major banks such as Bank of China H (+127 million shares/ +0.43%) and China Construction Bank H (+116 million shares/ +0.32%) and insurance capital continued to increase their holdings of the China Stock Bank.
Semi-annual financial management report: The scale is expanding steadily, the debt period is lengthening, and the allocation is gradually inclusive.
As of the end of June, the financial survival scale was RMB 33.66 trillion, +1.11%/+9.75% year over year at the beginning of the year.
1) In terms of the pattern, financial management companies continued at 31.18 trillion yuan, or +13.46%, accounting for 92.63% of the total market. Banks maintained their own operations at -22.26% year-on-year. The characteristics of “concentrated manufacturing and sales expansion” deepened, which favors banks with complete asset management licenses and strong channel capabilities;
2) Structurally, the share of closed products with a term of 1 year or more increased by 3.23 ppts to 74.10% compared to the beginning of the year. Longer debt periods helped to reduce negative feedback on redemptions;
3) In terms of allocation, bond-type assets account for 50.17%, and financial management is still the core allocation for credit bonds and long-term bonds; the scale of hybrid products is trillions of yuan (1.07 trillion yuan, accounting for +0.57 ppts compared to the beginning of the year), the average annualized income of 1H26 wealth management products is 2.05%, and financial management funds are gradually included at low interest rates, marginally benefiting high-dividend assets such as banks.
Risk factors:
The macroeconomic growth rate declined sharply; the quality of bank assets deteriorated beyond expectations; regulatory and industry policies changed beyond expectations; and companies' strategies fell short of expectations.