The Zhitong Finance App learned that Goldman Sachs released a research report saying that the value of AIA Insurance (01299)'s new business is expected to increase 15% year-on-year to US$3.254 billion in the first half of this year based on actual exchange rates. Among them, the growth rate for the second quarter is expected to slow to 12% (based on actual exchange rates), down from 17% in the first quarter. It is mainly affected by the high base effect of the Hong Kong market, rather than a slowdown in sales. The bank expects Hong Kong to record quarterly growth in new annualized premiums and new business value in the second quarter. Goldman Sachs raised its net profit forecast for the 2026 fiscal year by 12%, mainly reflecting strong stock market performance in the first half of the year and driving up the 2026-2028 book value forecast by 2%. Based on the estimated intrinsic value 1.4 times, the target price remained unchanged at HK$97, confirming the “buy” rating.
AIA will announce its results for the second quarter and the first half before the market opens on August 20. Goldman Sachs expects investors to focus on the growth momentum of sales growth in Hong Kong and the growth of the mainland China market, including the number of agents, banking insurance sales, product portfolio and profit margin on new business values; capital management will focus on repurchases and potential unnatural growth opportunities.
In terms of regional performance, Goldman Sachs expects mainland China to be the fastest-growing market, with new business values rising 13% year over year in the second quarter based on fixed exchange rates; Thailand, driven by sales of beneficiary investment and insurance products, corrected the year-on-year increase to 5% year on year, reversing the decline of 18% in the first quarter; growth momentum in Singapore, Malaysia and other markets is expected to remain stable.
The bank expects AIA's operating profit after tax to rise 10% year-on-year to US$3,957 billion in the first half of the year, driven by strong insurance service performance; net free surplus generation (NFSG) rose 12% year over year to US$2.72 billion; and embedded value (EV) is expected to rise 5% to US$80.4 billion on a half-year basis, in line with market expectations, benefiting from positive changes in foreign exchange and investment, and the annualized operating ROEV will be 16%. The mid-term dividend is forecast to rise 10% year over year to $0.069 per share.