Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.

Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings

Goodyear reports after market close, meaning Day 0 reflects anticipatory trading before results are released, while Day +1 captures the market's first full reaction to the actual numbers.

Historical price action around Goodyear earnings reveals extreme volatility, with Day +1 moves averaging 11.67% in absolute terms. The most recent earnings release (May 6, 2026) saw the stock decline 6.03% on Day +1 despite beating estimates, suggesting investors focused on forward guidance or underlying business trends rather than the headline beat.

The pattern over the past eight quarters shows a pronounced tendency for sharp post-earnings declines, particularly following Q2 reports. The August 2025 Q2 earnings triggered an 18.52% Day +1 drop, while the July 2024 Q2 report led to a 15.90% decline. Conversely, Q4 reports have historically generated positive reactions, with November 2024 and November 2025 both producing Day +1 gains exceeding 13%.

Day 0 moves are relatively muted at 1.23% on average, with a typical intraday range of 3.63%, indicating limited anticipatory positioning. The real action occurs on Day +1, where the average range expands to 10.08%. Given the upcoming report is for Q2—a period that has historically produced the most negative reactions—and with consensus estimates pointing to a significant loss, investors should prepare for potentially substantial downside volatility if results disappoint or guidance underwhelms.

Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move

The options market is pricing an expected move of 11.35% (±$0.82) for the August 21 expiration, which aligns closely with the 11.67% average absolute Day +1 move observed in recent earnings history. This suggests options traders are appropriately pricing the stock's historical earnings volatility, offering no obvious edge for premium sellers or buyers based on historical patterns alone.

Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying

Analyst sentiment toward Goodyear remains cautious but has shown modest improvement recently. The current consensus rating stands at 3.36 (between Hold and Buy), with a mean price target of $8.34—implying 16% upside from the current price of $7.19.

The analyst community is divided, with 3 Strong Buy ratings, 7 Hold ratings, and 1 Strong Sell rating among the 11 analysts covering the stock. Notably, there are no Moderate Buy or Moderate Sell ratings, suggesting analysts have relatively strong convictions in their views—either bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Sentiment has improved over the past month, with the average recommendation strengthening from 3.18 to 3.36. The number of Strong Sell ratings declined from 2 to 1, while Hold ratings increased from 6 to 7, indicating some analysts have upgraded from very negative to neutral stances. Strong Buy ratings have remained steady at 3.

Price targets range from a low of $6.60 to a high of $9.80, reflecting significant disagreement about the company's prospects. The mean target of $8.34 suggests analysts collectively see modest upside potential, though this assumes successful execution of the company's turnaround initiatives and a return to profitability in 2027. The wide target range underscores the uncertainty surrounding Goodyear's ability to navigate current industry headwinds and restore sustainable earnings power.

Part 4: Technical Picture

Goodyear's technical setup heading into earnings is mixed, with the Barchart Technical Opinion currently showing a Sell signal at 8%, unchanged from last week but significantly improved from the 40% Sell signal registered a month ago. This improvement suggests some stabilization in technical momentum after a period of weakness.

Timeframe Analysis:

• Short-term (50% Buy): Neutral-to-positive signal indicates modest near-term momentum as the stock has recovered from recent lows
• Medium-term (50% Sell): Neutral-to-negative reading suggests the intermediate trend remains under pressure despite recent stabilization
• Long-term (50% Sell): Neutral-to-negative signal reflects ongoing weakness in the longer-term trend structure

Trend Characteristics: The trend is showing Minimum strength and is Weakening, indicating fragile technical conditions with limited conviction in either direction heading into the earnings release.

The stock is currently trading at $7.19, positioned above its 5-day ($7.11), 10-day ($7.17), 20-day ($7.03), 50-day ($6.54), and 100-day ($6.58) moving averages, but remains below the critical 200-day moving average at $7.53. This configuration suggests short-term momentum has improved, with the stock recovering from oversold levels, but the failure to reclaim the 200-day average indicates the longer-term downtrend remains intact.

Key resistance sits at the 200-day moving average of $7.53, just 4.7% above current levels, which has capped recent rallies and represents a critical technical hurdle. Support appears around the 50-day and 100-day moving averages in the $6.54-$6.58 zone, roughly 9% below current prices. The technical setup is cautiously neutral—the stock has stabilized and shows short-term improvement, but lacks the momentum or positioning to suggest strong upside follow-through if earnings disappoint. Given the historical tendency for sharp post-earnings declines (particularly in Q2 reports) and the stock's position below long-term resistance, the technical picture offers limited cushion against negative surprises while providing modest support if results exceed lowered expectations.