Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
Occidental Petroleum typically reports earnings after the market close, meaning Day 0 reflects anticipatory trading before results are released, while Day +1 captures the market's first full reaction to the actual numbers.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | -$0.93 (-1.54%) | $0.86 (1.43%) | -$4.22 (-7.11%) | $1.95 (3.29%) |
| 2026-02-18 | +$1.17 (+2.55%) | $1.17 (2.56%) | +$4.42 (+9.38%) | $2.60 (5.51%) |
| 2025-11-10 | +$0.49 (+1.19%) | $0.94 (2.26%) | +$0.05 (+0.12%) | $1.62 (3.88%) |
| 2025-08-06 | -$0.54 (-1.25%) | $1.51 (3.51%) | +$1.05 (+2.47%) | $1.61 (3.78%) |
| 2025-05-07 | -$0.27 (-0.69%) | $0.81 (2.05%) | +$2.43 (+6.23%) | $2.20 (5.64%) |
| 2025-02-18 | +$0.78 (+1.62%) | $1.23 (2.56%) | +$2.15 (+4.40%) | $2.87 (5.88%) |
| 2024-11-12 | -$0.52 (-1.02%) | $1.05 (2.07%) | +$0.83 (+1.65%) | $3.06 (6.08%) |
| 2024-08-07 | -$0.02 (-0.04%) | $1.14 (2.04%) | +$2.42 (+4.31%) | $2.21 (3.94%) |
| Avg Abs Move | 1.24% | 2.31% | 4.46% | 4.75% |
Historical price behavior shows moderate Day 0 volatility averaging 1.24%, with the stock moving in a relatively tight range of 2.31% as investors position ahead of the release. The real action comes on Day +1, where OXY has averaged an absolute move of 4.46% with a typical range of 4.75%—nearly four times the Day 0 movement.
The directional pattern reveals a bullish bias in post-earnings reactions: five of the last eight reports saw positive Day +1 moves, including the three most recent quarters which posted gains of 6.23%, 4.40%, and 9.38%. The largest Day +1 move came after the February 2026 report, when the stock surged 9.38% following a strong earnings beat. Conversely, the most significant decline occurred after the May 2026 report, with a 7.11% drop despite beating estimates, suggesting investors were disappointed by guidance or forward commentary. Based on this history, investors should anticipate a post-earnings move in the 4% to 5% range, with recent momentum favoring upside reactions when the company delivers both a beat and constructive forward guidance.
Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 08/07/26 (DTE 3) |
| Expected Move | $2.18 (3.95%) |
| Expected Range | $52.91 to $57.27 |
| Implied Volatility | 64.82% |
The options market is pricing an expected move of 3.95% through the August 7 expiration, which sits below the stock's average historical Day +1 move of 4.46% and well under the typical Day +1 range of 4.75%. This suggests options traders may be underpricing potential volatility, particularly given OXY's recent pattern of outsized post-earnings reactions exceeding 6% in three of the last five reports.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Analyst sentiment on Occidental Petroleum reflects cautious optimism with a consensus rating that leans toward Hold. The current breakdown shows 7 Strong Buys, 1 Moderate Buy, 17 Holds, and no Sell ratings among 25 analysts covering the stock. The average recommendation of 3.60 places OXY in the upper end of Hold territory, approaching Buy.
Sentiment has improved over the past month, with the average recommendation rising from 3.44 to 3.60. This shift was driven by one analyst upgrading from Strong Sell to Strong Buy, while another moved from Hold to Strong Buy, reflecting growing confidence in the company's operational trajectory under new leadership. The number of Strong Buy ratings increased from 6 to 7 during this period.
The average price target of $64.16 implies 16.5% upside from the current price of $55.09, with estimates ranging from a low of $50.00 to a high of $75.00. The wide target range—spanning 50% from low to high—reflects divergent views on commodity price assumptions and the company's ability to execute on debt reduction while maintaining production growth. The mean target suggests analysts see meaningful appreciation potential if OXY can deliver on its strategic priorities and sustain its recent earnings momentum.
Part 4: Technical Picture
The Barchart Technical Opinion currently shows a Buy signal at 40%, representing a significant strengthening from last week's Buy at 24% and a complete reversal from last month's Sell at 40%. This rapid improvement in technical sentiment suggests building momentum heading into the earnings release.
Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-term (Hold): Neutral reading indicates near-term price action is consolidating without clear directional bias
- Medium-term (50% Buy): Moderate buy signal suggests positive momentum is building in the intermediate timeframe
- Long-term (50% Buy): Moderate buy signal reflects constructive longer-term trend development
Trend Characteristics: The current trend is characterized as Weak in strength with the Weakest directional reading, indicating that while the signal has turned positive, the underlying momentum lacks conviction and remains vulnerable to reversal.
The stock is trading at $55.09, positioned above the 50-day moving average of $54.62 and above the 200-day moving average of $50.37, confirming the longer-term uptrend remains intact. However, the price sits below the shorter-term 5-day ($55.92), 10-day ($56.09), and 20-day ($55.15) moving averages, as well as below the 100-day average of $56.75, suggesting recent consolidation after a pullback from higher levels.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $55.92 | 50-Day MA | $54.62 |
| 10-Day MA | $56.09 | 100-Day MA | $56.75 |
| 20-Day MA | $55.15 | 200-Day MA | $50.37 |
Key resistance appears at the 10-day moving average near $56.09, with stronger overhead resistance at the 100-day average of $56.75. Support is established at the 50-day moving average of $54.62, with the rising 200-day average at $50.37 providing a longer-term floor. The technical setup is moderately supportive heading into earnings: the stock has held above key longer-term moving averages and technical sentiment has improved sharply in recent weeks, but the weak trend characteristics and positioning below short-term averages suggest limited momentum cushion. A strong earnings beat could propel the stock through near-term resistance, while a disappointment could test the 50-day support level.