Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
TeraWulf reports before market open, meaning Day 0 captures the market's immediate reaction during the first trading session after results are released, while Day +1 reflects follow-through momentum.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | -$0.63 (-2.62%) | $3.01 (12.53%) | -$0.02 (-0.09%) | $2.24 (9.58%) |
| 2026-02-26 | -$0.04 (-0.22%) | $1.08 (6.03%) | -$1.66 (-9.28%) | $2.15 (12.05%) |
| 2025-11-10 | +$0.36 (+2.58%) | $1.28 (9.18%) | -$1.93 (-13.50%) | $2.02 (14.09%) |
| 2025-08-08 | +$0.09 (+1.82%) | $0.54 (10.93%) | +$0.37 (+7.36%) | $0.75 (14.91%) |
| 2025-05-09 | -$0.29 (-8.79%) | $0.51 (15.45%) | +$0.47 (+15.61%) | $0.55 (18.27%) |
| 2025-02-28 | +$0.58 (+16.07%) | $0.73 (20.22%) | -$0.52 (-12.41%) | $0.94 (22.43%) |
| 2024-11-12 | -$0.29 (-3.29%) | $0.56 (6.35%) | -$1.18 (-13.89%) | $1.98 (23.21%) |
| 2024-08-12 | -$0.22 (-5.80%) | $0.22 (5.80%) | -$0.26 (-7.28%) | $0.43 (12.04%) |
| Avg Abs Move | 5.15% | 10.81% | 9.93% | 15.82% |
WULF exhibits high volatility around earnings, with an average absolute Day 0 move of 5.15% and Day +1 move of 9.93%. The Day +1 moves are particularly dramatic, nearly doubling the initial reaction and averaging 15.82% intraday range.
The directional pattern is mixed but leans negative: five of the past eight reports saw the stock decline on Day +1, including three double-digit percentage drops (13.50%, 13.89%, and 12.41%). The most volatile reactions occurred in early 2025, when the stock swung 16% higher on Day 0 following the February report, only to reverse 12% lower the next session. More recently, the May 2026 report produced a relatively muted 2.62% Day 0 decline but minimal follow-through.
Investors should prepare for significant price movement, with historical data suggesting the Day +1 session often produces larger moves than the initial reaction—a pattern that may reflect institutional repositioning after digesting the full earnings details and guidance.
Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 08/07/26 (DTE 3) |
| Expected Move | $1.83 (9.68%) |
| Expected Range | $17.05 to $20.71 |
| Implied Volatility | 151.61% |
The options market is pricing a 9.68% expected move through the August 7 weekly expiration, implying a range of $17.05 to $20.71. This is slightly below the stock's average historical Day 0 move of 10.81% but well below the average Day +1 move of 9.93% and the combined two-day volatility pattern. The relatively modest implied move may reflect options traders anticipating less dramatic price action than WULF has historically delivered, potentially creating opportunity for volatility buyers if the stock reverts to its typical post-earnings behavior.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Analysts maintain a bullish stance on WULF despite recent operational struggles, with an average recommendation of 4.65 out of 5.0 (between Buy and Strong Buy). The consensus includes 16 Strong Buy ratings and 3 Moderate Buy ratings among 20 analysts covering the stock, though one analyst recently issued a Strong Sell rating.
The average price target of $37.68 implies 100% upside from the current price of $18.88, with estimates ranging from a low of $30.00 to a high of $72.00. This wide dispersion reflects significant disagreement about WULF's valuation and growth trajectory.
However, sentiment has deteriorated over the past month. One month ago, the consensus was even more bullish at 4.74 with 15 Strong Buys, 3 Moderate Buys, and 1 Hold. The recent shift to 16 Strong Buys but the addition of 1 Strong Sell (replacing the Hold) and the decline in the average recommendation signal growing analyst concern about near-term execution risks.
Despite the deterioration, the overwhelmingly positive rating distribution and substantial price target upside suggest most analysts view current weakness as a buying opportunity, likely betting on WULF's long-term positioning in sustainable Bitcoin mining and eventual profitability as operations scale.
Part 4: Technical Picture
WULF enters earnings in a weakened technical position after recent selling pressure. The Barchart Technical Opinion currently shows a Sell signal at 8%, a significant deterioration from the Buy signal at 56% one month ago and even weaker than last week's Sell signal at 24%. This rapid shift reflects mounting downside momentum heading into the report.
Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-term (50% Sell): Moderate sell signal indicates near-term momentum has turned negative, suggesting recent price action favors bears
- Medium-term (50% Buy): Moderate buy signal suggests the intermediate-term trend remains constructive despite short-term weakness
- Long-term (Hold): Neutral reading reflects an absence of strong directional conviction in the longer-term trend
Trend Characteristics: The combination of Minimum strength and Weakest direction indicates WULF is in a fragile technical environment with limited conviction, making the stock vulnerable to sharp moves in either direction depending on earnings results.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $17.66 | 50-Day MA | $23.03 |
| 10-Day MA | $18.14 | 100-Day MA | $21.13 |
| 20-Day MA | $19.19 | 200-Day MA | $17.58 |
The stock is trading at $18.88, positioned above its 5-day ($17.66), 10-day ($18.14), and 200-day ($17.58) moving averages, but below its 20-day ($19.19), 50-day ($23.03), and 100-day ($21.13) averages. This mixed picture shows the stock has found short-term support near its 200-day average after declining from higher levels, but remains well below its 50-day average—a key resistance level at $23.03 that represents a 22% premium to current prices.
The technical setup is cautionary heading into earnings. The stock has lost momentum over the past month, trading below most intermediate-term moving averages, and the deteriorating Barchart Opinion signal suggests selling pressure may intensify on disappointing results. However, the proximity to the 200-day moving average could provide support if WULF delivers a positive surprise, potentially triggering a relief rally back toward the $20-23 range.