Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.

Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings

Zillow reports after market close, meaning Day 0 reflects anticipatory trading before results are known, while Day +1 captures the market's first full reaction to the actual numbers.

Historical price action around Zillow earnings shows significant volatility, with an average absolute Day +1 move of 9.39%—substantially larger than the Day 0 move of 2.20%. This pattern is consistent with after-hours reporting, where the real reaction materializes the following trading session once investors digest the results and management commentary.

The most dramatic recent moves came in November 2024, when the stock surged 23.77% the day after earnings, and February 2026, when it plunged 16.54% following results. The May 2026 report (most recent) produced a relatively muted 1.91% decline on Day +1 despite the strong earnings beat, suggesting the market may have already priced in positive expectations or found guidance disappointing.

The average Day +1 range of 9.21% indicates substantial intraday volatility as well, with investors frequently reassessing positions as they parse the details. Given this history, investors should prepare for significant price movement following the August 5 report, with moves in the high single digits to low double digits being typical for Zillow earnings events.

Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move

The options market is pricing a 13.14% expected move through the August 21 expiration (17 days out), implying a range of $31.51 to $41.05. This is notably higher than Zillow's average historical Day +1 move of 9.39%, suggesting options traders are pricing in above-average volatility for this particular release—possibly reflecting uncertainty around whether Q1's strong results can be sustained or concerns about guidance in a still-uncertain housing market.

Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying

Analysts maintain a bullish stance on Zillow with an average rating of 4.00 (Buy), supported by 15 strong buy ratings, 1 moderate buy, and 15 holds—with zero sell ratings across the coverage universe of 31 analysts. The average price target of $60.31 implies 66% upside from the current price of $36.28, with the high estimate of $110.00 suggesting some analysts see potential for the stock to triple if the company fully executes on its opportunity.

Sentiment has improved over the past month, with the average recommendation ticking up from 3.94 to 4.00 as one analyst upgraded to strong buy. This positive shift comes despite the stock's significant decline from higher levels, suggesting analysts view the current valuation as increasingly attractive relative to Zillow's improving fundamentals and long-term earnings power.

The wide range of price targets—from a low of $34.00 (just 6% below current levels) to the $110.00 high—reflects divergent views on execution risk and the housing market outlook. Bulls see Zillow's dominant market position and operating leverage driving substantial earnings growth, while more cautious analysts likely worry about competitive pressures and macroeconomic headwinds. The concentration of strong buy ratings indicates the analyst community is increasingly confident in the turnaround story, viewing current levels as an opportunity rather than a value trap.

Part 4: Technical Picture

Zillow's technical setup heading into earnings is mixed, with the stock showing recent momentum improvement but remaining well below longer-term trend levels. The Barchart Technical Opinion currently reads 56% Sell, representing a significant improvement from 88% Sell a month ago and 72% Sell last week—indicating weakening bearish pressure as the stock has stabilized.

Timeframe Analysis:

• Short-term (50% Sell): Moderate sell signal suggests near-term momentum remains tentative despite recent gains
• Medium-term (50% Sell): Neutral-to-negative reading indicates the intermediate trend has not yet confirmed a reversal
• Long-term (100% Sell): Strong sell signal reflects significant weakness in the longer-term trend structure

Trend Characteristics: The trend is characterized by Average strength in the Weakest direction, suggesting Zillow remains in a downtrend but with diminishing conviction—a setup that could resolve either way depending on earnings results.

The moving average structure tells a story of recent recovery within a broader downtrend. The stock trades above its 5-day ($34.63), 10-day ($33.05), 20-day ($32.96), and 50-day ($33.25) moving averages, indicating short-term momentum has turned positive. However, the price remains below both the 100-day ($37.80) and 200-day ($51.27) moving averages, with the 200-day nearly 30% above current levels—a significant technical overhang.

Key resistance sits at the 100-day moving average of $37.80, just 4% above current levels, which could cap upside if earnings disappoint. The clustering of short-term moving averages in the $33-$34 range provides nearby support. The overall technical setup is cautiously constructive for earnings: recent momentum improvement and the weakening sell signal suggest the stock has stabilized after its decline, but the distance from longer-term averages means a strong earnings beat and guidance would be needed to trigger a sustained breakout. Conversely, any disappointment could quickly reverse recent gains and test support in the low $30s.