The CITIC Construction Investment Research Report pointed out that the July FOMC meeting kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged, and the Federal Reserve continued the policy rhythm of “observing, confirming, and adjusting”, and did not release a clear signal of interest rate cuts. According to June PCE data, US inflation continues to improve, and falling energy prices are driving the overall price pressure to ease, but core inflation is still above the 2% policy target, and policies limiting service price stickiness and consumer resilience are rapidly shifting. Currently, the Federal Reserve is paying more attention to the continuation of the decline in inflation and the effectiveness of the monetary policy framework after adjustments. In the short term, maintaining restrictive policies remains the benchmark scenario, and subsequent policy shifts still require more confirmation of inflation and employment data.

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