The Zhitong Finance App learned that as of August 3, CICC released a research report saying that as of August 3, 15 leading copper mining companies in the world had announced 1H26 operations, with a total copper production of 5.67 million tons in 1H26, -5% YoY, and -5%/+3% YoY in 2Q26. The bank estimates that global copper supply will grow or turn negative in 2026. Insufficient capital expenditure limits long-term supply. Driven by “new industry+new region+new inventory” demand, global copper supply and demand will continue to be tight. The bank believes that the copper price center is expected to move upward. It is recommended to focus on leading targets with a high self-sufficiency rate for copper mines, strong potential for increasing storage and production, and epitaxial mergers and acquisitions.
CICC's main views are as follows:
Production capacity disturbances and grade decline led to an overall year-on-year decline in 1H26 copper production of leading mining companies
The year-on-year decline in 1H26 copper production of 7 of the 15 mining companies. The sharp year-on-year decline in copper production in Freeport and Ivanhoe was mainly due to disturbances in production capacity in some mines; the year-on-year decline in production of BHP Billiton, Nanfang Copper, and Glencore mainly contributed to a decline in the grade of some mines.
The growth rate of domestic electrolytic copper production is slowing down due to tight copper supply and limited copper scrap replenishment
First, in 1H26, China's imported copper ore had a cumulative year-on-year ratio of -1%. As of July 31, stocks of copper concentrate in mainstream domestic ports had fallen to a low level in the past three years. Second, domestic copper scrap recycling invoice management has become stricter and import supplements are limited. In May, the amount of crude copper produced in domestic scrap was -39% higher than at the beginning of the year. Overall, in June, China's electrolytic copper production was +2%/+6% month-on-month, with a cumulative year-on-year ratio of +2.8%.
US copper tariffs are expected to be compounded by the arrival of the domestic peak season, and against the backdrop of a sharp drop in the non-US market, supply and demand will tighten or boost copper prices
First, the US Department of Commerce submitted a report at the end of June. The US President has a 90-day window to sign an executive order. The report submitted last year proposed phased imposition of 15%/30% tariffs on refined copper in 2027/28. As of July 31, the combined inventory of the two major US exchanges was +63% compared to the beginning of the year. Second, the domestic copper rod operating rate at the end of July was only 60%. Judging from previous years, downstream entered the peak season in September. Third, as of July 31, LME/SHFE/domestic social copper inventories were -38%/-84%/-81% higher than during the year.
The long-term bull market pattern remains unchanged, and opportunities for lower valuation allocations in the A-share copper sector are highlighted
The bank estimates that global copper supply will grow or turn negative in 2026. Insufficient capital expenditure limits long-term supply. Driven by “new industry+new region+new inventory” demand, global copper supply and demand will continue to be tight. The bank believes that the copper price center is expected to move upward. According to Wind, the PE (TTM) of the Shenwan copper industry was -44% higher than at the beginning of the year on August 3, ranking 27% of the valuation level in the past ten years.
risk
Supply exceeded expectations, tariff implementation fell short of expectations, and macroeconomic risks brought about by geopolitical conflicts.