[Anatomy Dashboard]
There are many major events today, more reflected in the game between China and the US. The attitude of the stock market is quite clear. A shares have risen sharply, and Hong Kong stocks have risen slightly by 0.24%.
Trump has made every move for the midterm elections. His latest statement said that his administration had “very smooth negotiations” with Iran on Tuesday, and the Strait of Hormuz will soon be opened. However, Iran's state television today (August 5) quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that a possible agreement between Iran and Oman on arrangements for the passage of ships in the Strait of Hormuz does not mean that the strait will immediately resume opening. Trump has the right to speak, and the capital market listens. The price of oil was directly knocked down and fell 5%.
The ripple effect was that spot gold hit 4,100 US dollars/ounce upward, rising 0.56% during the day. The reason for the collective change in gold stocks this time should not only be the drop in oil prices; the deeper reason is the intensification of the game between China and the US. Capital is choosing a safe haven. China Gold International (02099): Profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase by about 46.4% to 53.1% year-on-year in the medium term, up more than 13% today; other WGE Gold Group (03939), Lingbao Gold (03330), and Zhitong's August gold stocks Zijin Gold International (02259) all rose more than 10%.
There are colors and incentives: the US will ban the export of tungsten waste and recycled battery materials from the end of this month. Less than a week ago, US President Trump just officially authorized government departments to allow materials with potentially critical strategic value to remain in the country. Tungsten is widely used in the military industry. The US side is using up a lot of ammunition in the Middle East this time, and is in urgent need of tungsten raw materials. Currently, it can only be extracted from waste. The leading tungsten company Jiaxin International Resources (03858) surged nearly 10%; Jinjing Xinneng (01783), a battery recycling concept, also surged more than 13%. Related lithium battery stocks are also trending strongly.
Copper futures prices hovered near historic highs. According to the data, COMEX copper futures were reported at $6.65 per pound, less than 1% lower than the all-time high set in May. Jiangxi Copper (00358), Minmetals Resources (01208), and China Nonferrous Mining (01258) all rose by more than 6%.
Looking at the game between China and the US, yesterday's optical communication market had an easy rebound. There was an immediate downturn on the US side: According to people familiar with the matter, the US government is drafting a ban to ban the import of new Chinese data center components to protect the critical infrastructure supporting the development of artificial intelligence. Not to mention all kinds of interpretations; they all know it's impossible. It's Trump's playing cards out of thin air to get chips for the September talks. However, it actually caused damage to the market, because they were all worried that they would suddenly “get stuck”. There is no way; the core stuff is in the hands of the US. Zhongji Xuchuang (03308) fell more than 5%.
In the past, it was basically tolerable to do this, but now times are changing, because repeated concessions will turn into endless sanctions of all kinds. As a result, the Ministry of Commerce immediately took countermeasures, including: strengthening export controls on drones and their key components and technology to the US; suspending factory tracking inspections commissioned by the US certification agency from China's mandatory product certification authority; adding US compliance testing companies to the countermeasure list; initiating foreign trade national security investigations on imported printing and copying office equipment; and adding six US entities to the countermeasure list. There is nothing wrong with reciprocal countermeasures; if you don't pay a price, you don't know the pain. Among them, printers had a big impact. The domestically produced replacement Lenovo Group (00992) rose nearly 6% today.
With this initiative, the US directly stimulated domestic production replacement and upgrading, and even South Korea is looking for ways to get rid of its restraint. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are evaluating the chip manufacturing equipment of China Micro Semiconductor (AMEC) and considering using it at its Chinese factory, triggering the market to reevaluate the logic of domestic equipment moving from “internal circulation” to “external circulation” overseas. If China Micro (688012.SH) can enter the supply chain, it will trigger the market to re-evaluate the logic of domestic equipment being replaced from “internal circulation” to “external circulation” going overseas. Domestic chip manufacturing companies will also accelerate the domestic production process. Huahong Semiconductor (01347), SMIC (00981), and ASMPT (00522), which were mentioned in the sector yesterday, all rose by more than 4%.
The hardware direction, the PCB industry chain mentioned yesterday is undoubtedly the most prosperous industry at present. According to some agencies, the July benchmark price was 8.5-8.7 yuan/meter; the monthly increase in August was 1.5-2.0 yuan/meter, up 17%-22% month-on-month, and the price increase was greater than July (1.2 yuan/meter increase in July). Price increases are expected to continue until at least the end of '27. As the link with the hardest production capacity bottleneck and steepest price increase slope in the PCB chain, the recent pullback has fully disrupted external sentiment; the current position is the best layout window after the fall. The core product Jiantao laminated board (01888) increased by more than 10%; the PCB equipment class Chipboard (09630) mentioned yesterday rose nearly 14% again; Dingtai Hi-Tech (01377) and Guanghe Technology (01989) rose more than 7%. Andeley Juice (02218) also rose more than 9% due to the cross-border acquisition of a PCB factory.
There is another stimulus. Next, Nvidia will adopt the Kyber solution: remove most of the copper cables and use an ultra-large, 78-layer ultra-high precision PCB orthogonal backboard as a hub; the GPU tray is directly inserted 90 degrees vertically into this large board to complete high-speed NVLink interconnection. A single cabinet can plug 144 Rubin GPUs, and the density, latency, and cooling will be fully upgraded. This has directly led to a sharp rise in the value of single PCB cabinets. Shenghong Technology (02476) Kyber's orthogonal backplane is progressing rapidly. Once Nvidia certification passes and enters mass production, then its valuation will increase significantly, rising more than 16% today.
Hon Hai recently stated in a statement that AI cabinet shipments are expected to maintain their momentum this quarter, while demand for ICT products is entering a peak season. Overall operations are expected to grow both month-on-month and year-over-year. The subsidiary FIT HON TENG (06088) is mainly engaged in connectors and cable modules, focusing on 5GAIoT and high-growth racetracks, focusing on the development of high-speed connectors and core optical communication components, and is expected that the cloud market will become the main driving force for growth. Today it surged more than 17%. GPU Wall Technology (06082) in the direction of computing power surged nearly 13%. Next, there was a tender for the optical fiber category, and Changfei Optical Fiber Cable (06869) surged by more than 14%. Within 24 hours of the release of the big model MiniMax (00100) and the latest open source model H3, more than 100 domestic and foreign partners have completed Day0 adaptation and access. As Zhitong, gold stocks surged more than 10% in August.
Overseas Palantir has soared, and popularity has spread to vertical segments, and knowledge maps have become the core component of the AI infrastructure layer. Haizhi Technology Group (02706)'s core business covers three major sectors: first, knowledge mapping platforms and intelligent analysis solutions for the financial, energy, manufacturing and other industries; second, big data infrastructure based on graph databases; and third, enterprise-level AI applications integrating large models. The company's self-developed graph database products have been deployed by many domestic financial institutions and large enterprises, and today they have surged by nearly 43%.
On August 4, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's “Safety Requirements for Autonomous Driving Systems for Intelligent Connected Vehicles” was officially released. It will be implemented on July 1, 2027. The standard covers L3 and L4 high-level autonomous vehicles, establishes a full-life cycle safety control, human-computer interaction, and multi-dimensional test and verification system, and clarifies a unified safety entry baseline for advanced intelligent driving. In the medium to long term, it is beneficial to the development of industry standards, but short-term stimulus is limited; only Zhejiang Shibao (01057) rose by more than 15%. Hesai (02525) recently showed an active performance increase of more than 3%.
[Section Focus]
Recently, Morgan Stanley once again drastically raised industry expectations for the Chinese humanoid robot market, judging that the industry has moved from the technology demonstration stage to the commercial implementation stage, and the pace of development has significantly exceeded the market's previous expectations. Domestic humanoid robot shipments are expected to reach 50,000 units in 2026, nearly double the previous forecast of 28,000 units; the bank's initial forecast for January was only 14,000 units. Meanwhile, the agency's long-term forecast shows that China's humanoid robot shipments will reach 446,000 units in 2030, corresponding to a market size of 15 billion US dollars, and a compound growth rate of 106% from 2025 to 2030.
On the evening of July 30, Yushu Technology disclosed its prospectus for the Science and Technology Innovation Board. It plans to publicly issue no less than 404.464.34 million shares (accounting for no less than 10% of the total share capital after issuance), preliminary inquiries on August 5, and offline subscription on August 10. It is expected to bring popularity. The main types of Hong Kong stocks are: Reclining Robot (06600), Motion Robot (01236), Preferential Choice (09880), Laifu Harmonic (03952), Eston (02715), and Suteng Juchuang (02498).
[Individual Stock Mining]
Ganfeng Lithium (01772): Diversified Resource Layout to Release Overseas Lithium Mine Production Capacity
The company's 2026 interim report predicts that net profit to mother was 3.65 to 4.6 billion yuan, with a loss of 531 million yuan in the same period last year. Net profit surged 966% year on year; after deducting non-net profit of 3 to 4.2 billion yuan, a sharp increase of 429% to 560% year on year. BlackRock recently increased the company's H share position from 6.67% to 8.62%.
Comment: The company performed well in the first half of the year, successfully turning a loss into a profit. The company is a leader in the global lithium industry, with equity resources exceeding 45 million tons of LCE, ranking among the highest in the world. 2026 annual LCE production: 23-250,000 tons (+30% +).
Release of overseas lithium production capacity, 1) Argentina's Cauchari‑Olaroz (CO Salt Lake, 51% shareholding), 24.58 million tons of LCE, the second largest salt lake in the world. The first phase has a production capacity of 40,000 tons/year of lithium carbonate; the second phase passed the 2026 EIA, and construction will commence in 2027. 2) Mariana Salt Lake, Argentina (100% holding), 8.12 million tons of LCE, with a production capacity of 20,000 tons/year of lithium chloride in the first phase. It will be put into operation in February 2025 and climbed in 2026, contributing 10,000 tons+. 3) Goulamina spodumene mine in Mali (wholly-owned), 7.14 million tons of LCE, lithium oxide grade 1.37%, production capacity 506,000 tons of lithium concentrate/year in the first phase. Rapid growth in production capacity and shipments. Lithium salt production capacity: 200,000 tons+ of lithium carbonate/lithium hydroxide; 250,000 tons+ planned for 2026; Phase II will be launched at the end of 2026 and put into operation in 2027. 4) PPGS Salt Lake: Construction started in the second half of 2026 and put into operation in 2028.
Lithium metal: The largest in the world, production capacity continues to expand. Customers include leading global companies such as Ningde Times, BYD, LG, and Tesla. Diversified resource layout, the company's layout of lithium batteries for electric ships, a one-time production capacity of 2 million tons of potassium chloride in the Congo (Brazzaville) potash fertilizer project (expected to be put into operation in 2027), the total recovery rate of lithium adsorption and extraction technology has reached more than 90%, and the lithium sulfide production line is gradually releasing production capacity. The company's energy storage capacity increased by 35-40 GWh (588Ah production line Q3 climbs), and shipped 50 GWh+ throughout the year, becoming the largest source of profit, increasing its global share, contributing 3 to 4 billion dollars in net profit. Energy storage orders were scheduled for mid-2027, and all production capacity was completed in 2026.
Large-scale mass production of solid-state batteries (10 GWh level), with an energy density of 450 to 500 Wh/kg, entering high-end cars+consumer electronics, opening up 100 billion dollars of space. Energy storage cells are fully produced and sold. The company continued to produce energy storage cells at full capacity from January to April. The capacity utilization rate was close to 100%, and the supply of battery products was in short supply; the 588Ah production line in Nanchang plans to start climbing capacity in the third quarter, and the 648Ah project accelerated. Order schedule: The full year of 2026 plus the first half of 2027 has been completed, and the new production capacity has been locked in advance. In addition, the company's high-safety, low-temperature solid-state lithium batteries have been sent in batches to internationally renowned mobile phone companies for verification.
The agency expects lithium prices to continue to strengthen in the second half of 2026, maintaining the target price forecast of 250,000 yuan/ton. There is room for a 50% increase compared to the current price of lithium carbonate. The company's performance increased in the first half of the year, and institutions are optimistic that lithium prices will pick up during the peak season.