Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
Ziff Davis reports earnings after market close, meaning Day 0 captures anticipatory trading before results are released, while Day +1 represents the market's first full reaction to the actual numbers.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | -$0.37 (-0.85%) | $1.63 (3.72%) | -$2.29 (-5.29%) | $3.19 (7.37%) |
| 2026-02-23 | -$1.84 (-5.86%) | $2.02 (6.42%) | -$3.04 (-10.29%) | $4.33 (14.65%) |
| 2025-11-06 | -$0.73 (-2.19%) | $1.58 (4.73%) | -$0.06 (-0.18%) | $3.12 (9.54%) |
| 2025-08-06 | +$1.18 (+3.96%) | $1.16 (3.87%) | +$6.70 (+21.62%) | $5.02 (16.21%) |
| 2025-05-08 | +$0.75 (+2.37%) | $1.25 (3.97%) | -$1.47 (-4.54%) | $2.85 (8.80%) |
| 2025-02-24 | +$0.09 (+0.19%) | $1.86 (3.87%) | -$0.52 (-1.08%) | $3.61 (7.52%) |
| 2024-11-07 | -$0.98 (-1.96%) | $2.48 (4.97%) | +$7.66 (+15.64%) | $7.08 (14.44%) |
| 2024-08-07 | +$0.24 (+0.61%) | $1.75 (4.41%) | +$1.08 (+2.71%) | $3.48 (8.73%) |
| Avg Abs Move | 2.25% | 4.50% | 7.67% | 10.91% |
Historical price behavior around Ziff Davis earnings shows significant volatility, with an average absolute Day +1 move of 7.67% and an average Day +1 range of 10.91%. This volatility has been highly directional, with several quarters producing dramatic swings in either direction.
The most notable move came in Q3 2025 (August 2025), when the stock surged 21.62% on Day +1 despite relatively modest Day 0 movement of 3.96%. This suggests the market was caught off-guard by results or guidance that significantly exceeded expectations. Conversely, the most recent earnings in Q1 2026 (May 2026) produced minimal Day 0 movement but a 5.29% decline on Day +1, reflecting disappointment with the results.
The Q4 2025 report (February 2026) stands out for its Day 0 decline of 5.86%, followed by an even steeper Day +1 drop of 10.29%—a total two-day decline that suggests particularly poor results or guidance. The average Day 0 move of 2.25% is relatively modest compared to the Day +1 average of 7.67%, indicating that the real price discovery typically occurs after investors have digested the full earnings release and management commentary.
Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 08/21/26 (DTE 16) |
| Expected Move | $5.87 (11.14%) |
| Expected Range | $46.85 to $58.59 |
| Implied Volatility | 71.44% |
The options market is pricing an expected move of 11.14% for the August 21 expiration, which is significantly higher than the historical average Day +1 move of 7.67%. This elevated implied volatility of 71.44% suggests options traders are anticipating above-average price movement, possibly reflecting uncertainty around the company's ability to break its streak of earnings misses or deliver guidance that could reset expectations.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Analyst sentiment on Ziff Davis has improved recently, with the average recommendation rising to 4.00 (Buy) from 3.50 one month ago. The current consensus reflects a constructive but not overwhelmingly bullish view, with 2 Strong Buy ratings, 1 Moderate Buy, and 2 Hold ratings. Notably, the analyst community has shifted away from negative ratings entirely—one month ago there was 1 Strong Sell rating, which has since been removed or upgraded.
The average price target of $53.00 implies minimal upside of just 0.53% from the current price of $52.72, suggesting analysts see the stock as fairly valued at current levels. However, there is a meaningful range in analyst views, with the high estimate of $61.00 implying 15.7% upside, while the low estimate of $48.00 suggests 8.95% downside risk. This $13 spread reflects divergent views on the company's ability to execute on its turnaround.
The improvement in sentiment is particularly noteworthy given the company's recent track record of earnings misses. The elimination of the Strong Sell rating and maintenance of two Strong Buy ratings suggests some analysts believe the market has adequately discounted near-term execution risks and that valuation has become attractive. The clustering of price targets near the current stock price indicates analysts are taking a wait-and-see approach, likely wanting to see evidence of improved execution before becoming more aggressive with their targets.
Part 4: Technical Picture
Ziff Davis enters earnings with a Buy signal at 88% from the Barchart Technical Opinion, though this represents a slight weakening from 100% Buy readings both one week and one month ago. The recent softening suggests some near-term momentum loss, but the overall technical picture remains constructive.
Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-term (50% Buy): Moderate buy signal indicates near-term momentum has cooled from recent highs, reflecting some consolidation ahead of earnings
- Medium-term (100% Buy): Strong buy signal across the intermediate timeframe suggests the underlying trend remains firmly positive
- Long-term (100% Buy): Maximum buy reading in the longer-term timeframe confirms the stock is in a sustained uptrend
Trend Characteristics: The Strong trend that is Weakening suggests the stock maintains a solid technical foundation but is experiencing some near-term profit-taking or consolidation ahead of the earnings event.
The stock is currently trading at $52.72, positioned above its 50-day ($49.77), 100-day ($46.77), and 200-day ($40.74) moving averages, confirming the longer-term uptrend. However, the stock is trading below its shorter-term 5-day ($53.56), 10-day ($53.08), and 20-day ($52.92) moving averages, indicating recent weakness and potential resistance overhead.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $53.56 | 50-Day MA | $49.77 |
| 10-Day MA | $53.08 | 100-Day MA | $46.77 |
| 20-Day MA | $52.92 | 200-Day MA | $40.74 |
The technical setup heading into earnings is cautiously supportive. While the longer-term trend structure remains intact with the stock well above all major moving averages, the recent pullback below short-term averages suggests some vulnerability. The $53-$54 zone (where the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day averages cluster) represents immediate resistance, while the 50-day moving average at $49.77 provides support roughly 6% below current levels. Given the options market's expectation of an 11.14% move and the stock's history of volatile post-earnings reactions, traders should be prepared for a decisive break in either direction that could quickly test these key levels.