The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that in 2004-2008, the expansion of investment in the energy industry compounded supply bottlenecks, driving molybdenum prices to rise rapidly. From 2009 to 2015, supply expanded, demand slowed, and molybdenum prices were sluggish for a long time. 2016-2020: Improved traditional demand drives price recovery, and external shocks are once again under pressure. Since 2021, demand for energy and high-end manufacturing has expanded, supply growth has been limited, and molybdenum prices have continued to rise. In the first half of 2026, China's net imports of molybdenum were 18,900 tons, +124.0% year-on-year, compounded by a steady decline in domestic inventories, reflecting the continued boom in demand for molybdenum.
Guojin Securities's main views are as follows:
Molybdenum: a key element in high-end manufacturing and energy conversion
Molybdenum has both high melting point, high temperature strength, high thermal conductivity and low thermal expansion coefficient, and has excellent alloying properties, so molybdenum and molybdenum alloys are suitable for specialized fields such as electronic devices, heat treatment equipment, and metal processing.
Next-generation storage interconnect materials, AI drives the increase in high-end demand
As 3DNAND evolves to more than 300 layers, tungsten wire faces constraints such as increased resistance and RC delay; molybdenum has lower effective resistivity at the nanoscale, and has the potential for unblocked layer integration and high depth-to-width ratio structural filling. Samsung Electronics has introduced a molybdenum metallization process in the ninth generation of 3DNAND, and SK Hynix is also planning to switch some font materials from tungsten to molybdenum in the next generation of products. As demand for AI storage expands, the application of molybdenum in 3DNAND is expected to open up application space for molybdenum in advanced manufacturing processes, and drive an increase in demand for high-end molybdenum products such as high-purity molybdenum raw materials and molybdenum precursors.
Demand: High-end manufacturing boom, energy conversion to the next level
According to IMOA, global molybdenum usage was +3.6% to 304,700 tons in 2025, of which China's usage was +10.8% to 153,200 tons of metal tons, accounting for 50.3% of global demand; in 2020-2025, the CAGR for global/Chinese molybdenum usage was 4.5%/7.6%, respectively. According to Ferroalloy Online, domestic steel intake increased from 120,800 tons in 2023 to 157,700 tons in 2025, and 82,700 tons of domestic steel in 2026H1, +8.4% over the same period last year. ① Energy and chemicals: The oil, gas, and thermal power boom continues, and there is more room for improvement. At the beginning of March 2026, Brent crude oil surpassed 80 US dollars/barrel. Considering the lag in capital expenditure, demand for related equipment is expected to pick up significantly from the third quarter of 2026, thereby supporting demand for molybdenum in the energy and chemical industry. ② High-end manufacturing: Shipbuilding leads the way, wind power and construction machinery boom resonate. From January to June 2026, the global shipbuilding volume was 607.70 million dwt, +30.5% year-on-year. The rise in high-end manufacturing is expected to drive demand for molybdenum for high-strength steels, special steels, and large alloy components. ③ Strategic requirements: Defense budgets are growing steadily, investment in high-end equipment remains high, and demand for molybdenum used in high-performance alloys is growing steadily.
Supply: Declining overseas, slow domestic growth
In 2025, global molybdenum production was about 3051 thousand metal tons, +5.1% year-on-year; of these, China, South America, and North America each accounted for 44.9%/26.1%/19.9%, and associated properties limited the flexibility of molybdenum supply in the short term. The 2026 production guidelines for major overseas miners have declined. Overseas molybdenum production is expected to be 15.94/15.66/156,500 metal tons in 2026-2028, respectively, -2.2%/-1.8%/0.0% year-on-year; domestic increases mainly come from projects such as Julong Copper Mine Phase II and Dasuji Molybdenum Mine, and supply growth is expected to be limited.
Balance between supply and demand: Molybdenum supply and demand gap is expected to continue to expand
The bank expects global demand for molybdenum to be +4.6%/+3.3% YoY in 2026-2028, while global supply +0.5%/-0.2%/+2.1% YoY, corresponding to the 2026-2028 supply and demand gap widening to 2.2/3.4/39,000 metal tons respectively. The supply and demand pattern continues to tighten, supporting the molybdenum price center.
Related targets: Gold and Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (leading molybdenum resources, in-depth distribution of molybdenum powder business); Guocheng Mining (acquisition of remaining shares in Dasuji molybdenum ore is progressing, and profits are expected to increase significantly); Shenglong shares (outstanding molybdenum resource endowments, mining side production expansion progresses simultaneously with the layout of high-performance molybdenum materials).
Risk Alerts
Molybdenum price fluctuation risk; downstream demand falls short of expectations; project commissioning falls short of expectations; production safety and environmental risks