Half year earnings put Lottomatica Group (BIT:LTMC) in focus
Lottomatica Group (BIT:LTMC) reported half year 2026 results on 28 July, with sales of €1,163.57 million and revenue of €1,169.12 million. Net income was €110.83 million, compared with €64.83 million a year earlier.
See our latest analysis for Lottomatica Group.
At a share price of €24.27, Lottomatica Group has a 1-day share price return of 1.04% and a year to date share price return of 9.03%, while the 3-year total shareholder return of 175.23% points to strong longer term momentum, despite a 12.32% decline over the past 90 days.
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Lottomatica Group’s strong half year figures sit alongside a mixed share price story, with solid multi year gains but a recent pullback. Is this latest move more about changing sentiment, or about what the business is actually worth?
Most Popular Narrative: 23.2% Undervalued
The most followed narrative for Lottomatica Group pegs fair value at €31.58, well above the recent close at €24.27. That gap rests on a specific view of how earnings and margins could evolve over the next few years.
The upcoming consolidation opportunity from Italy's new online concession framework allows Lottomatica to capture an additional 7-10% of the total market share, with 2% already secured through deals, presenting a structural step-up in the company's addressable revenue base and long-term earnings potential.
Curious what sits behind that higher fair value for Lottomatica Group? The narrative leans on faster revenue growth, rising margins and a future earnings multiple that needs those forecasts to hold. The detailed story links top line assumptions, profitability and expected share count changes into one price target. The full breakdown shows exactly which moving parts matter most.
Result: Fair Value of €31.58 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, for Lottomatica Group you still need to weigh its concentration in Italy and ongoing regulatory scrutiny, which could challenge the optimistic margin and growth assumptions.
Find out about the key risks to this Lottomatica Group narrative.
Another View on Lottomatica Group’s Valuation
The fair value of €31.58 for Lottomatica Group rests on analyst forecasts. A second check comes from our SWS DCF model, which points to a future cash flow value of €22.05. That puts the current €24.27 price above this estimate, so which set of assumptions do you find more convincing?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Next Steps
With Lottomatica Group attracting varied views on value and future earnings, this may be a good time to act promptly and evaluate the assumptions for yourself by weighing its 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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