The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huachuang Securities released a research report saying that weakening short-term inflation and employment data is driving expectations of interest rate hikes to cool down, and gold ushered in a recovery window. Continued attention is being paid to the US non-agricultural data on the 7th of this month and the 12th CPI data for further verification of employment and inflation. The bank believes that the current role of central bank purchases in underpinning gold prices is gradually showing and strengthening. Currently, the bottom position of gold is relatively clear, and the valuation is expected to continue to recover. The medium- to long-term allocation value is prominent. It is recommended to focus on the gold sector and related assets, and it is recommended to focus on industry leaders and targets with clear growth potential.
The main views of Huachuang Securities are as follows:
matters
On August 4, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the number of JoLTS job vacancies in June dropped from 7.54 million after the May revision to 7.36 million, with an estimated 7.4 million vacancies. On August 5, according to a report by Hong Kong's Wande News Agency, the number of ADP employees in the US increased by 44,000 in July, and is expected to increase by 70,000. The previous value was revised from 98,000 to an increase of 95,000. In this context, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said in an interview that the US may reach an agreement with Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz; Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagae said on the 5th that an agreement has been reached with Oman on the Hormuz Strait shipping route. Meanwhile, in the early morning of July 30, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%. Furthermore, the US June core PCE price index was released. The US June core PCE price index rose 3.3% year on year, expected to rise 3.3%, and the previous value rose 3.4%; up 0.1% month-on-month, expected to rise 0.2%, and the previous value rose 0.3%.
The bank believes that weakening short-term inflation and employment data will drive interest rate hike expectations to cool down, and gold ushered in a recovery window
First, the implementation of the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting in July mitigated short-term interest rate hike expectations, which led to a decline in expectations of the Fed's interest rate hike in September; second, judging from the inflation data, considering that the US-Iran conflict has cooled down compared to the second quarter, and that expectations of recent US-Iran negotiations continue to ferment, driving energy prices back to a manageable range. The US inflation data and employment data already released in July and August indicate that inflation expectations have cooled down, and the future inflation trend is expected to be manageable; third, judging from US bond yields, the current 10Y and 30Y US bond yields have broken, respectively. 4.6%, 5.1%, as of August 3 The total amount of US Treasury bonds has risen to 39.74 trillion US dollars, an increase of 1.32 trillion US dollars compared to the beginning of the year. Debt pressure may have suppressed expectations of interest rate hikes. The bank believes it will continue to pay attention to the further verification of employment and inflation in the US non-farm payrolls data on the 7th of this month and the 12th CPI data.
Global ETF capital is gradually entering a net inflow state, and demand for gold investment is expected to pick up
In June, there was an outflow of about 8.9 billion US dollars from global physical gold ETFs; all regions experienced outflows. Among them, the North American region had the largest fund outflow. Total global gold ETF asset management (AUM) fell 13% to $526 billion, and total holdings decreased by 74 tons to 4,047 tons. Despite the outflow in June, global gold ETFs maintained a net inflow trend in the first half of the year, with inflows of about $8 billion. However, since July, global gold ETFs have gradually entered a net inflow state. As of the latest July 24 data released by the World Gold Council, global gold ETF holdings were 4,063 tons, an increase of 14.7 tons over the end of June, with a net weekly inflow of 18.12 tons. According to Wind data, as of August 4, SPDR gold ETF holdings were 32.45 million troy ounces, up 73,000 troy ounces from the end of July and 135,700 troy ounces from the end of June.
Looking at the central bank's gold purchases in the medium to long term, the long-term logic of de-dollarization remains unbroken
Central banks purchased a total of 244 tons of gold in the first quarter of 2026, and continued to buy gold for 22 consecutive quarters. By country, 1) China's central bank's gold purchases in June hit a record high in recent years: as of the end of June 2026, China's gold reserves were 75.44 million ounces, up 480,000 ounces from the end of May. The monthly increase hit a new high in the capital increase cycle, achieving 20 consecutive monthly increases. As of Q1 2026, the central bank of China's gold/total foreign exchange reserves accounted for 9.14%, and the global average was 28.2%. There is still room for growth in China's gold reserves. 2) Unconventional selling pressure from Turkey and Russia has slowed. The gold sell-off pressure from March to April 2026 came mainly from Turkey and Russia. Judging from the two countries' gold purchases, there is still room for gold allocation in emerging economies: According to the “2026 Global Central Bank Gold Reserve Survey” released by the World Gold Council in June, the vast majority of central banks surveyed (89%) believe that the gold reserves of central banks around the world will increase in the next 12 months; the proportion of central banks surveyed that think their own gold reserves will also increase in the next 12 months has reached a record 45 %. Among them, in January 2026, the Bank of Poland, the world's largest gold buyer, plans to buy 150 tons of gold in 2026 to raise gold reserves to 700 tons; the Bank of Korea plans to purchase gold for the first time in 13 years. According to “Joongang Ilbo” and other Korean media reports on August 3, the Bank of Korea plans to purchase domestic refined gold bars for the first time in 13 years, and has already purchased a small amount of gold ETFs in the second quarter. The bank believes that the current role of central bank purchases in underpinning gold prices is gradually showing and strengthening.
Risk warning: The Fed's policy exceeds expectations; the geographical situation is uncertain; global central bank purchases fall short of expectations; the inflow of global gold ETF funds falls short of expectations.