The Zhitong Finance App learned that from 2026, as the trade environment stabilizes, inventory pressure is absorbed, and tail companies are cleared, leading cross-border sellers may reverse their operations, and leading sellers or strong players will become stronger. Benefiting from supply chain efficiency and e-commerce model innovation, Chinese companies are leading global competition, but there is still plenty of room to increase the size of sellers. Agile supply chains, digitalization and AI transformation have built a moat for sellers; the bank is optimistic about leading cross-border sellers operating in compliance, brand leadership, and business reversal and share growth under the advantages of AI transformation.
CICC's main views are as follows:
The cross-border e-commerce boom will improve in 2026, and leading cross-border e-commerce sellers may face a reversal in business
In the context of the 2020-2023 epidemic, the penetration rate of overseas e-commerce increased, compounded by multiple catalysts such as European and American consumer subsidies and domestic platforms going overseas, cross-border e-commerce sellers accelerated the influx of cross-border e-commerce sellers and intensified industry competition; trade frictions between China and the US restricted overseas business expansion in 2024. Coupled with tightening e-commerce platform rules, declining traffic support, and stricter cross-border tax reporting and logistics regulations, etc., the pressure on small and medium-sized sellers is prominent. Starting in 2026, as the trade environment stabilizes, inventory pressure is absorbed, and last-tier companies are cleared, the bank believes that the top cross-border sellers may reverse their operations, and the leading sellers or strong players will become stronger.
The global industry is rapidly expanding, with Chinese sellers leading the way, and there is still room for improvement in individual size
Cross-border e-commerce efficiently meets domestic demand for high-quality production and overseas quality-price ratio. Under strong supply and demand, the industry is rapidly expanding, and brand-type, supply-chain, and platform-based sellers are flourishing. According to the General Administration of Customs, China's cross-border e-commerce exports CAGR 15.9% in 2020-2025. Benefiting from supply chain efficiency and e-commerce model innovation, Chinese companies lead global competition, but due to the long target market, long business chains, and difficulties in capacity transfer, the number of cross-border sellers in China is large but small. According to MarketplacePulse, about 50% of Amazon's active sellers came from China in 2025, but Chinese sellers accounted for 6.8%/45.1% of the GMV of the top 100 or 50-10,000 brands with sales in July 2026, and there is still plenty of room for improvement in seller size.
Based on product brands, agile supply chain, digital and AI transformation build a moat for sellers
1) Product quality is the underlying capability of cross-border sellers. Branded sellers focus on product differentiation to achieve quality growth with their own brands; supply chain sellers focus on rapid response in multiple categories to support business development; 2) Agile supply chains determine operational efficiency. Flexible supply chains with small orders and quick responses are the core of competition; branded sellers use process production, raw material collection, etc. to improve turnover, and supply chain sellers use flexible procurement to achieve centralized scheduling. The cross-border e-commerce business chain is long, and sellers need to use AI tools and digital control to achieve centralized resource scheduling., Refined operations improve human efficiency.
risk
Geopolitical and trade friction risks; changes in platform rules; increased industry competition; overseas demand falls short of expectations; changes in exchange; risk of rising raw material prices.