According to Woofun AI, there is a significant divergence between the trend of the US stock market and Bitcoin. The boom in the field of artificial intelligence did not drive the simultaneous rise of cryptocurrencies; on the contrary, it highlighted the macro background of capital diversion.
This difference in performance is particularly stark in terms of data: Bitcoin only recorded an increase of about 2% this month, while the market value of the S&P 500 surged by $2.1 trillion. The underlying reason is that the recent stock market rebound is mainly driven by a few large technology stocks such as semiconductors, and Bitcoin, which lacks a leading effect, is unable to enjoy the spillover dividends brought about by traditional rising risk appetite.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the market is paying close attention to the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and the clarity of the US regulatory framework. The market points out that until there is no new favorable catalyst, capital is more likely to flow to the AI sector with higher certainty.
At the microstructural level, there are obvious signs that the market is under pressure. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which had strong inflows at the beginning of the year, recently turned into a net outflow, directly weakening buying support; at the same time, the supply of stablecoins as “backup funds” in the crypto market is also shrinking, further curbing potential demand. Combined with recent frequent regulatory enforcement actions and security incidents, institutional investors turned extremely cautious and drastically reduced their exposure before the regulatory environment was uncertain, leading to market liquidity being exhausted.
As Bitcoin is gradually being redefined as a store of value rather than a high-growth asset, its correlation with tech stocks is waning. This decoupling phenomenon emphasizes the importance of diversified investment, and its price drivers have returned to endogenous variables such as network fundamentals, ETF capital flows, and regulatory decisions. If there are no clear benefits in the short term, Bitcoin may remain consolidated, while the stock market will continue to benefit from the artificial intelligence boom. The long-term outlook still depends on the evolutionary logic of the crypto ecosystem itself.