- In July 2026, Starbucks Corporation reported third-quarter revenue of US$9,322.7 million, with net income rising to US$1,045.3 million and diluted earnings per share from continuing operations increasing to US$0.91.
- The company also raised its full-year earnings guidance to diluted GAAP earnings per share of US$2.14 to US$2.24, even while expecting net revenues to be flat to slightly higher year over year.
- With Starbucks lifting full-year earnings guidance despite only modest revenue expectations, we’ll examine how this reshapes the company’s investment narrative.
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Starbucks Investment Narrative Recap
To own Starbucks today, you have to believe the Back to Starbucks turnaround can translate better store operations and menu innovation into healthier earnings, even if revenue grows slowly. The latest quarter supports that view on profitability, with earnings up despite slightly lower sales, but it also highlights a key short term tension: can Starbucks lift margins without reigniting comparable sales growth, especially as macro and labor pressures remain the most immediate risk.
The raised full year GAAP EPS guidance to US$2.14 to US$2.24, despite expecting flat to slightly higher revenue, is the announcement that stands out here. It reinforces earnings improvement as the main near term catalyst, closely tied to the company’s efforts to streamline operations, refine store formats, and use marketing and product innovation to support ticket and mix rather than leaning purely on traffic growth.
Yet while earnings are improving, investors should be aware that rising labor costs and union pressures could still...
Read the full narrative on Starbucks (it's free!)
Starbucks’ narrative projects $42.0 billion revenue and $4.4 billion earnings by 2029. This requires 3.0% yearly revenue growth and roughly a $2.9 billion earnings increase from $1.5 billion today.
Uncover how Starbucks' forecasts yield a $106.25 fair value, in line with its current price.
Exploring Other Perspectives
Some of the lowest ranked analysts were assuming only about 1.4 percent annual revenue growth and US$3.7 billion of earnings by 2029, which is far more cautious than the consensus narrative and your own view might be, especially if you think the latest EPS beat and guidance raise could reshape how sustainable Starbucks’ margin gains really are.
Explore 10 other fair value estimates on Starbucks - why the stock might be worth 33% less than the current price!
Reach Your Own Conclusion
Don't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.
- A great starting point for your Starbucks research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
- Our free Starbucks research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Starbucks' overall financial health at a glance.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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