Fitch Ratings: Keeping the 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast unchanged at $87 per barrel, the risk has now turned downward. The oil market is expected to re-enter a state of oversupply from September. The price of Brent crude oil is expected to fall to $70 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026. Increased supply from the Strait of Hormuz traffic in June was enough to offset the impact of an additional two months of supply disruptions. Production in the Middle East is expected to resume rapidly once hostilities ease in the region. Abundant global inventories and strong non-OPEC supply are factors that put downward pressure on oil prices.

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