Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
Take-Two typically reports before market open, meaning Day 0 captures the first full trading session reaction while Day +1 reflects follow-through momentum.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | +$1.46 (+0.62%) | $5.81 (2.46%) | -$10.53 (-4.42%) | $26.44 (11.11%) |
| 2026-02-03 | -$9.64 (-4.35%) | $14.54 (6.56%) | -$11.41 (-5.38%) | $11.59 (5.46%) |
| 2025-11-06 | -$2.36 (-0.93%) | $4.88 (1.91%) | -$20.40 (-8.08%) | $16.31 (6.46%) |
| 2025-08-07 | -$0.72 (-0.32%) | $6.13 (2.70%) | -$9.12 (-4.03%) | $22.79 (10.06%) |
| 2025-05-15 | +$2.84 (+1.24%) | $5.36 (2.34%) | -$5.60 (-2.41%) | $14.67 (6.31%) |
| 2025-02-06 | -$1.84 (-1.00%) | $2.66 (1.44%) | +$25.69 (+14.03%) | $16.91 (9.24%) |
| 2024-11-06 | +$2.59 (+1.58%) | $3.69 (2.25%) | +$12.55 (+7.53%) | $9.13 (5.48%) |
| 2024-08-08 | +$3.11 (+2.29%) | $3.63 (2.68%) | +$6.04 (+4.35%) | $4.36 (3.14%) |
| Avg Abs Move | 1.54% | 2.79% | 6.28% | 7.16% |
Historical price behavior shows significant volatility around Take-Two earnings releases. Over the past eight reports, the stock has averaged an absolute Day 0 move of 1.54% with an intraday range of 2.79%, followed by a much larger Day +1 move averaging 6.28% with a 7.16% range.
The pattern reveals that the initial reaction is often modest, but the follow-through session can be dramatic. The most recent May 2026 report illustrates this: a muted 0.62% Day 0 gain was followed by a sharp 4.42% Day +1 decline. The largest post-earnings move came in February 2025, when the stock surged 14.03% on Day +1. Notably, six of the past eight reports have seen Day +1 declines, suggesting profit-taking or reassessment often follows the initial reaction.
Investors should prepare for potential volatility extending beyond the immediate earnings day, with the Day +1 session historically producing moves more than four times larger than the initial reaction.
Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 08/07/26 (DTE 1) |
| Expected Move | $15.34 (6.60%) |
| Expected Range | $217.12 to $247.80 |
| Implied Volatility | 181.52% |
The options market is pricing a 6.60% expected move (±$15.34), slightly below the 6.28% average absolute Day +1 move but well above the 1.54% Day 0 average. This suggests options traders are anticipating volatility in line with recent historical patterns, with the expected range of $217.12 to $247.80 capturing the typical post-earnings swing.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Analyst sentiment on Take-Two remains overwhelmingly bullish heading into earnings. The current consensus shows 26 Strong Buy ratings, 2 Moderate Buys, and just 1 Hold, with zero sell ratings among the 29 analysts covering the stock. The average recommendation of 4.86 out of 5.0 reflects near-universal confidence in the company's long-term trajectory.
The mean price target of $285.27 implies 23% upside from the current price of $232.47, with the range spanning from a low of $212 to a high of $368. The wide target range reflects differing views on the timing and magnitude of GTA VI's impact, but even the most conservative target sits near current levels.
Sentiment has improved over the past month, with Strong Buy ratings increasing from 25 to 26 while Hold ratings declined from 2 to 1. This strengthening conviction comes despite the challenging near-term earnings comparison, suggesting analysts are looking through the transitional quarter and focusing on the transformative growth expected from the upcoming game pipeline. The consensus appears to view any earnings-related weakness as a buying opportunity ahead of what could be one of the most significant product cycles in gaming history.
Part 4: Technical Picture
The Barchart Technical Opinion currently shows a 56% Buy signal, down from 88% Buy last week and 72% Buy last month, indicating weakening near-term momentum as the stock has pulled back heading into earnings.
Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-term (50% Buy): Moderate buy signal suggests near-term momentum has cooled but remains marginally positive
- Medium-term (50% Buy): Neutral-to-positive reading indicates consolidation in the intermediate timeframe
- Long-term (50% Buy): Moderate buy signal reflects a balanced longer-term trend without strong directional conviction
Weak Weakest — The trend characteristics indicate the current technical environment lacks strong conviction in any direction, with the weakening momentum suggesting caution heading into the earnings event.
The stock is trading at $232.47, positioned below its 5-day ($239.13), 10-day ($241.27), 20-day ($239.79), and 50-day ($234.73) moving averages, but above its 100-day ($223.77) and 200-day ($229.34) moving averages. This configuration shows short-term weakness with the stock pulling back from recent highs, while the longer-term uptrend remains intact.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $239.13 | 50-Day MA | $234.73 |
| 10-Day MA | $241.27 | 100-Day MA | $223.77 |
| 20-Day MA | $239.79 | 200-Day MA | $229.34 |
The technical setup heading into earnings is mixed to cautious. The recent pullback has pushed the stock below all short-term moving averages, creating overhead resistance in the $235-$240 zone. However, support from the 100-day and 200-day moving averages in the $224-$229 range provides a cushion. The deteriorating Barchart Opinion signal and weak trend characteristics suggest limited technical momentum, meaning the earnings reaction will likely be driven entirely by results and guidance rather than technical tailwinds. A beat-and-raise scenario could quickly reverse the short-term weakness, while any disappointment might test the 100-day moving average support near $224.