Last week, you might have seen that Marui Group Co., Ltd. (TSE:8252) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.6% to JP¥2,899 in the past week. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of JP¥72b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Marui Group surprised by delivering a statutory profit of JP¥50.46 per share, a notable 11% above expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Marui Group's nine analysts is for revenues of JP¥299.7b in 2027. This reflects a credible 6.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 3.7% to JP¥171. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥299.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥171 in 2027. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
See our latest analysis for Marui Group
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥3,533, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Marui Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥4,400 and the most bearish at JP¥3,100 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Marui Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Marui Group's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 8.6% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2027 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 6.2% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.2% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Marui Group to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,533, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Marui Group analysts - going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Marui Group (1 is significant!) that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.