It's been a pretty great week for BASF India Limited (NSE:BASF) shareholders, with its shares surging 12% to ₹4,125 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenue of ₹48b came in a notable 21% ahead of expectations, while statutory earnings of ₹97.10 were in line with what the analyst had been forecasting. Following the result, the analyst has updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analyst has changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for BASF India from one analyst is for revenues of ₹174.2b in 2027. If met, it would imply a decent 8.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to step up 19% to ₹170. Before this earnings report, the analyst had been forecasting revenues of ₹162.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹119 in 2027. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about BASF India's future following the latest results, with a massive increase in the earnings per share forecasts in particular.
View our latest analysis for BASF India
With these upgrades, we're not surprised to see that the analyst has lifted their price target 5.6% to ₹4,350per share.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analyst is definitely expecting BASF India's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 12% annualised growth to the end of 2027 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 5.2% per annum over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 12% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that BASF India is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analyst upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards BASF India following these results. They also upgraded their revenue forecasts, although the latest estimates suggest that BASF India will grow in line with the overall industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analyst believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2028, which can be seen for free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for BASF India that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.