Last week, you might have seen that Fresenius Medical Care AG (ETR:FME) released its interim result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.4% to €41.88 in the past week. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at €0.81, some 24% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at €9.5b. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, Fresenius Medical Care's 17 analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be €19.5b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decline 18% to €2.92 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €19.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of €2.97 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
View our latest analysis for Fresenius Medical Care
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of €42.86, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Fresenius Medical Care, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €67.00 and the most bearish at €31.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Fresenius Medical Care's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Fresenius Medical Care's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 1.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 2.0% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.4% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Fresenius Medical Care is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Fresenius Medical Care's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Fresenius Medical Care going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Fresenius Medical Care that we have uncovered.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.