06:48 AM EDT, 08/07/2026 (MT Newswires) -- RBC Capital Markets views Commerzbank's (CBK.F) long-term standalone strategy as clouded by shareholder structure uncertainty arising from Italian peer UniCredit's (UCG.MI) stake in the German lender. "The longer the uncertainty on the ownership structure lasts, the higher the risk that the operation and the execution of the current strategy might be impacted in our view. We have factored in EUR450m restructuring costs as part of the current plan to deliver cost saves, but union conversations might slow down (due to [the UniCredit] situation) to execute on current plans," analysts said Thursday. "CBK reiterated its capital distribution plan of 100% with at least 50% in dividends. We continue to factor in a 50-50 split (subject to future developments). We estimate UC's stake increases by 5pp by end of 2028 as CBK executes on our estimated [share buyback] program." The research firm added that Commerzbank's operational trends remain on track following its second-quarter results. Against this backdrop, the research firm lowered its EPS forecasts by 1% for 2026 and 2% for 2027 on the back of higher expected loan losses. For 2028, RBC said its estimates are consistent with the outlook, while those for 2030 continue to be below guidance. The outperform-rated stock's 43-euro price target was maintained. RBC also assigned a speculative risk rating to the shares, citing the risk that the bank's existing shareholder structure might dilute the investment case for investors other than the majority shareholder.

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