Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodity research at Goldman Sachs, said that Europe is facing the double risk of diesel and natural gas supplies before winter. According to the data, TTF, Europe's benchmark natural gas futures, fell 7% this week to around 54 euros/megawatt-hour, but Dart still maintained its forecast of reaching 60 euros for the rest of the third quarter. European gas stocks are currently around 57.87%, which is about 18 percentage points lower than the average from 2009 to 2025. In July, northwest Europe's liquefied natural gas imports fell short of expectations, resulting in inventory at the end of the month being only about 43%, increasing pressure to replenish stocks in winter. Dart predicts that if energy exports to the Middle East recover slowly, the European TTF gas price may rise above 100 euros/megawatt-hour in December this year, 110% higher than the original benchmark forecast of 50 euros/megawatt-hour; if shipping in the Strait of Hormuz resumes smoothly, the price may fall back to around 40 euros, 20% lower than the original forecast.

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