Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.

Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings

CEVA typically reports earnings before market open, meaning Day 0 captures the market's immediate reaction when trading begins, while Day +1 reflects follow-through momentum.

Historical price action around CEVA earnings reveals significant volatility, with an average absolute Day 0 move of 10.12% and Day +1 follow-through averaging 3.54%. The stock has demonstrated particularly dramatic reactions to disappointing results, as evidenced by the 20.17% Day 0 plunge following the May 2025 miss. Conversely, positive surprises have generated strong rallies—the August 2024 beat drove a 20.52% Day 0 surge, followed by additional 5.25% gains on Day +1.

The most recent earnings (May 2026) produced relatively muted volatility despite a miss, with just a 1.38% Day 0 decline and 1.70% Day +1 recovery, suggesting investors may have already priced in execution challenges. However, the 10.82% Day 0 range indicates significant intraday volatility even when the close-to-close move was modest. The February 2026 report triggered a sharp 9.79% Day 0 selloff with minimal recovery, reinforcing the market's low tolerance for disappointment during this transition period.

Investors should prepare for potential double-digit percentage swings, particularly if results or guidance deviate meaningfully from expectations. The historical pattern suggests initial reactions tend to be more severe than follow-through moves, with Day 0 volatility averaging nearly three times the Day +1 move.

Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move

The options market is pricing an expected move of 17.60% through the August 21 expiration, significantly higher than the 10.12% average historical Day 0 move. This elevated implied volatility suggests options traders are anticipating above-average volatility for this particular report, possibly reflecting heightened uncertainty around the company's profitability trajectory and the sustainability of non-mobile growth momentum.

Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying

Analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic stance on CEVA with an average recommendation of 4.30 (Buy), though sentiment has deteriorated over the past month from 4.44. The current consensus includes 6 Strong Buy ratings, 1 Moderate Buy, and 3 Hold ratings, with no sell recommendations. This 10-analyst coverage universe reflects broad support for the company's long-term strategic direction, even as near-term execution concerns have emerged.

The mean price target of $48.88 implies 26% upside from the current price of $38.67, with estimates ranging from a low of $36.00 to a high of $60.00. This wide target range—spanning $24 or 67% from low to high—underscores significant disagreement among analysts about the company's valuation and the probability of successfully executing its turnaround strategy. The most bullish analysts see substantial upside if CEVA can demonstrate sustained non-mobile growth and achieve its profitability targets, while more conservative views reflect skepticism about the pace of the transition away from declining mobile markets.

The recent deterioration in sentiment, marked by the shift from 4.44 to 4.30 over the past month, suggests at least one analyst has grown more cautious heading into this report. This downgrade likely reflects concerns about the challenging path to full-year profitability given the losses already accumulated in the first half of 2026, as well as ongoing uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of non-mobile revenue ramps.

Part 4: Technical Picture

The Barchart Technical Opinion currently shows a 56% Buy signal, representing a significant weakening from 96% Buy one month ago and 24% Buy one week ago. This dramatic volatility in the technical signal reflects the stock's choppy price action as it consolidates following earlier gains, with the current reading suggesting a neutral-to-slightly-bullish technical setup heading into earnings.

Timeframe Analysis:

• Short-term (50% Buy): Neutral reading indicates near-term momentum has stalled after recent volatility
• Medium-term (50% Buy): Balanced signal suggests the intermediate trend lacks clear direction as the stock digests prior moves
• Long-term (100% Buy): Strong buy signal reflects the stock's substantial gains over the past year, with price well above long-term moving averages

Trend Characteristics: The Average strength trend is Weakening, suggesting momentum is fading as the stock approaches earnings, creating an uncertain technical backdrop for the upcoming report.

From a moving average perspective, CEVA trades above its 5-day ($35.60), 10-day ($34.02), 20-day ($36.91), 100-day ($34.46), and 200-day ($28.48) moving averages, but below its 50-day moving average ($41.86). This configuration indicates the stock remains in a longer-term uptrend but has pulled back from recent highs, with the 50-day average now serving as overhead resistance. The stock's position just above the 20-day moving average at $36.91 suggests this level could provide near-term support if results disappoint. Overall, the technical setup is mixed—the long-term trend remains constructive, but weakening momentum and the failure to hold above the 50-day average create a cautious backdrop heading into a historically volatile earnings event.