Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.

Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings

Monday.com reports before market open, meaning Day 0 captures the market's immediate reaction during the first trading session after results are released, while Day +1 reflects follow-through momentum.

Monday.com exhibits extreme volatility around earnings releases, with an average absolute Day 0 move of 15.79%—substantially higher than typical market reactions. The historical pattern shows dramatic swings in both directions: the stock has posted Day 0 moves ranging from a 30% plunge (August 2025) to a 26% surge (February 2025), with five of the last eight reports producing double-digit moves.

The Day +1 follow-through averages 2.96%, suggesting most of the price discovery occurs in the immediate reaction, though notable exceptions exist. After the February 2025 earnings that drove a 26% Day 0 gain, the stock was essentially flat the next day. Conversely, the May 2025 report that produced minimal Day 0 movement saw a 4% rally on Day +1, indicating delayed recognition of the results' implications.

The intraday volatility is equally striking, with Day 0 trading ranges averaging 10.78% and reaching as high as 21% in the most recent May 2026 report. This wide intraday movement suggests significant disagreement among market participants about how to value the results, creating both risk and opportunity for traders. Investors should prepare for substantial price swings regardless of whether the company beats or misses estimates.

Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move

The options market is pricing an 18.85% expected move for this earnings release, which is notably higher than the 15.79% average historical Day 0 move. This elevated implied volatility suggests options traders are anticipating an even more dramatic reaction than the stock's already-volatile historical pattern, potentially reflecting heightened uncertainty about the sustainability of Monday.com's recent profitability improvements or concerns about guidance in a challenging macro environment.

Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying

Analyst sentiment on Monday.com remains decidedly bullish, with a consensus rating of 4.36 out of 5.0—firmly in Strong Buy territory. The current breakdown shows 16 Strong Buy ratings, 2 Moderate Buys, and 7 Holds, with zero sell recommendations across the 25 analysts covering the stock. This lopsided distribution reflects broad confidence in the company's growth trajectory and market position.

The sentiment trend is unchanged from one month ago, indicating stable conviction among analysts despite the stock's recent price appreciation. The mean price target of $108.78 implies approximately 17% upside from the current price of $93.13, suggesting analysts believe the recent rally still leaves room for further gains. However, the wide dispersion in individual targets—ranging from a low of $80.00 to a high of $165.00—reveals significant disagreement about the company's ultimate valuation, with the most bullish analysts seeing more than double the upside of the most conservative.

The concentration of Strong Buy ratings without any offsetting sell recommendations is notable and suggests analysts view any near-term volatility as a buying opportunity rather than a reason for caution. The unchanged sentiment despite recent price strength indicates analysts are raising their targets in line with the stock's performance, maintaining their bullish stance rather than becoming more cautious at higher levels.

Part 4: Technical Picture

Monday.com enters earnings with strong technical momentum, as the Barchart Technical Opinion has improved from a 16% Sell signal one month ago to a 24% Buy signal currently. This shift reflects the stock's sustained rally above key moving averages and improving short-term momentum indicators. The signal strengthened further from last week's 24% Buy reading, maintaining its positive trajectory.

Timeframe Analysis:

• Short-term (50% Buy): Moderate buy signal indicates positive near-term momentum heading into the earnings release
• Medium-term (Hold): Neutral reading suggests the intermediate trend is in consolidation mode after the recent rally
• Long-term (Hold): Neutral signal reflects the stock's position below its 200-day moving average despite recent strength

Trend Characteristics: The trend shows minimum strength with average direction, suggesting the recent rally represents early-stage momentum rather than an established powerful trend, leaving the stock vulnerable to earnings-driven volatility.

The stock is trading at $93.13, positioned above its 5-day ($90.97), 10-day ($88.96), 20-day ($83.47), 50-day ($80.94), and 100-day ($75.71) moving averages—a bullish alignment across all short- and intermediate-term timeframes.

However, Monday.com remains below its 200-day moving average of $104.20, a significant technical hurdle that represents the stock's longer-term downtrend from previous highs. The 12% gap to this key level suggests the rally still faces overhead resistance despite recent strength. The improving short-term momentum and positioning above all shorter-duration moving averages provides a supportive technical setup heading into earnings, but the distance below the 200-day average and the stock's history of extreme post-earnings volatility means traders should expect substantial two-way risk regardless of the fundamental results.