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To own AMP today, you need to believe the business can convert retirement and advice demand into steady, higher quality earnings while managing margin and cost pressures. The latest half year lift in profit and EPS is a helpful data point, but it does not remove near term risks around persistent margin compression, rising costs and the earnings drag from AMP Bank GO. The key short term catalyst remains proof that higher profitability can be sustained without over relying on cost cuts.
The most relevant recent development alongside these results is AMP’s appointment of Richard Millington to lead Employer Adviser Partnerships. This move sits squarely in the retirement and advice growth story, aiming to sharpen AMP’s engagement with employers and advisers that influence superannuation flows. How effectively this capability translates into stickier relationships and better flows into AMP’s platforms will be important when weighing the earnings uplift against ongoing risks to margins and costs.
Yet behind the stronger half year numbers, there is still a material risk investors should be aware of around potential margin compression and...
Read the full narrative on AMP (it's free!)
AMP's narrative projects A$1.4 billion revenue and A$368.9 million earnings by 2029. This assumes a 20.0% yearly revenue decline and an earnings increase of about A$235.9 million from A$133.0 million today.
Uncover how AMP's forecasts yield a A$2.07 fair value, a 14% downside to its current price.
Some of the lowest ranked analysts were assuming AMP’s revenue could fall to about A$1.1 billion and earnings rise to roughly A$325.8 million by 2029, which paints a much more pessimistic picture than the consensus and underlines how differently you might weigh this new profit step up against concerns about AMP Bank GO’s deposit growth and funding mix.
Explore 3 other fair value estimates on AMP - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!
Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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