Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) may be approaching a short-term recovery, but renowned market analyst Alessio Rastani warns that the bigger risk is a multi-year bear market beginning in 2027.
In a Cointelegraph interview on Aug. 6, Rastani noted that Bitcoin could stage a temporary rally over the next three to six months before another major decline.
His longer-term thesis draws partly on an Elliott Wave analysis from veteran market forecaster Robert Prechter, which suggests Bitcoin completed a five-wave advance around its $126,000 all-time high.
Under Elliott Wave theory, completing a five-wave advance can precede a larger correction toward the previous fourth-wave region.
Prechter’s interpretation produces an extremely bearish long-term target around $3,500, corresponding with Bitcoin’s 2018 bear-market lows.
The analyst doesn’t expect such an extreme decline.
Instead, he sees $20,000-$25,000 as a more realistic downside target by the end of 2027. "I’m less bearish than Bob," he added.
Why Bitcoin Could Still Rally in 2026
The bearish long-term outlook doesn’t mean Bitcoin is necessarily headed straight down.
BTC is currently holding around a key 21-period quarterly exponential moving average, according to the analyst, potentially providing the foundation for another short-to-medium-term recovery.
The critical downside level is around $57,000.
“If Bitcoin drops below $57,000 in the next few months, then brace for impact,” he said.
Such a breakdown could open the door to the next support zone around $47,000-$49,000, corresponding with the 34-period quarterly EMA.
For now, however, he expects support to hold and believes Bitcoin could bounce before the larger bearish structure develops.
What About $1 Million BTC?
Despite his bearish medium-term forecast, the analyst remains bullish on Bitcoin over a much longer horizon.
He says BTC could eventually reach $1 million but considers forecasts calling for that milestone by 2030 highly improbable.
Instead, he sees $1 million as achievable over the next 10 to 20 years.
“Before we get to a million, we need to see Bitcoin dropping at least to $20,000 and probably even below $20,000 to $16,000 and maybe even close to $10,000,” he said.
Only after that correction, he argues, would the foundation be in place for Bitcoin’s longer-term march toward $300,000 and eventually $1 million.
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