Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.

Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings

Similarweb typically reports before market open, meaning Day 0 represents the first full trading session where investors react to results, while Day +1 captures follow-through momentum.

Historical price action around Similarweb earnings reveals significant volatility, with the stock prone to dramatic moves in both directions. Over the past eight earnings releases, the stock has averaged an absolute Day 0 move of 3.16% with an intraday range of 8.75%, followed by a much larger Day +1 move averaging 15.80% with a range of 12.62%.

The pattern shows that the real price discovery often happens on Day +1 rather than the initial reaction day. Notable examples include the February 2026 report, where a modest -2.01% Day 0 move was followed by a devastating -34.62% Day +1 decline, and the August 2025 report, where a +3.35% Day 0 gain accelerated to +18.73% on Day +1. The most recent May 2026 earnings saw an -8.65% Day 0 drop followed by a +7.72% Day +1 recovery, demonstrating the stock's tendency to whipsaw.

Investors should prepare for substantial volatility, with historical data suggesting moves exceeding 10% are common in the session following the initial reaction. The wide intraday ranges indicate active trading and significant disagreement among market participants about the company's value proposition.

Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move

The options market is pricing an expected move of 15.78% (±$1.14) for the August 21 expiration, which aligns almost perfectly with the 15.80% average Day +1 move observed historically. This suggests options traders are appropriately pricing the stock's tendency for significant post-earnings volatility, particularly in the follow-through session.

Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying

Analyst sentiment toward Similarweb shows a cautiously optimistic stance with recent improvement. The consensus rating stands at 3.67 out of 5.0, reflecting a moderate buy recommendation. Among 9 analysts covering the stock, 3 rate it a Strong Buy and 6 rate it a Hold, with no sell ratings. This represents improved sentiment, as the consensus has strengthened from 3.60 one month ago when there were 7 Hold ratings.

The average price target of $6.10 implies 15.86% downside from the current price of $7.25, suggesting the recent rally may have outpaced analyst expectations. However, there is significant dispersion in views, with targets ranging from a low of $5.00 to a high of $8.50. The high-end target represents 17.24% upside potential, indicating that some analysts see substantial value if the company can execute on its profitability roadmap.

The shift from 7 Hold ratings to 6 Hold ratings over the past month, combined with the improved average recommendation, suggests analysts are becoming incrementally more constructive on the story. However, the fact that the mean price target sits below the current trading level indicates the Street may view the stock as fairly valued or slightly ahead of fundamentals at current levels.

Part 4: Technical Picture

Similarweb enters earnings with strong technical momentum, supported by a bullish Barchart Technical Opinion. The signal currently stands at 88% Buy, unchanged from last week but significantly improved from 72% Buy one month ago. This strengthening trend reflects the stock's impressive rally from lower levels earlier this year.

Timeframe Analysis:

• Short-term (100% Buy): Maximum bullish signal indicates powerful near-term momentum heading into the earnings release
• Medium-term (100% Buy): Strong buy signal across the intermediate timeframe confirms the uptrend is well-established beyond just short-term trading
• Long-term (50% Buy): Moderate positive reading suggests the longer-term trend is constructive but less emphatic than shorter timeframes

Trend Characteristics: The combination of Good strength and Average direction indicates a solid uptrend that is progressing at a measured pace rather than overheating.

The stock is trading at $7.25, positioned above its 20-day ($7.03), 50-day ($6.00), 100-day ($4.48), and 200-day ($5.27) moving averages, confirming the strength of the recent rally. However, the stock sits slightly below its 5-day ($7.40) and 10-day ($7.32) moving averages, suggesting some near-term consolidation or profit-taking ahead of the earnings event.

The technical setup is generally supportive heading into earnings, with the stock in a clear uptrend across multiple timeframes and well above all major long-term moving averages. The 100% Buy signals in both short and medium-term timeframes indicate strong momentum, though the slight pullback below the 5-day and 10-day averages suggests some caution has crept in immediately before the release. The key level to watch is the 20-day moving average at $7.03, which now serves as nearby support. Given the stock's tendency for large post-earnings moves and the fact that it has rallied substantially from the $4.48 level (100-day MA), investors should be prepared for significant volatility in either direction depending on whether results and guidance meet the market's elevated expectations.