A week ago, Kirin Holdings Company, Limited (TSE:2503) came out with a strong set of half-year numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 2.6% to hit JP¥1.2t. Kirin Holdings Company also reported a statutory profit of JP¥92.87, which was an impressive 38% above what the analysts had forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Following last week's earnings report, Kirin Holdings Company's 14 analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be JP¥2.53t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to drop 13% to JP¥215 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥2.50t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥218 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
View our latest analysis for Kirin Holdings Company
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥2,871. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Kirin Holdings Company at JP¥3,867 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥2,500. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Kirin Holdings Company's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 1.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 7.1% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 2.2% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Kirin Holdings Company.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Kirin Holdings Company analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Kirin Holdings Company (1 is a bit concerning) you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.