Last week, you might have seen that SECOM CO., LTD. (TSE:9735) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.0% to JP¥6,340 in the past week. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of JP¥298b and statutory earnings per share of JP¥276 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that SECOM is executing in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from SECOM's five analysts is for revenues of JP¥1.31t in 2027. This reflects a credible 3.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 2.5% to JP¥286. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥1.31t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥291 in 2027. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
View our latest analysis for SECOM
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥7,070. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on SECOM, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥7,450 and the most bearish at JP¥6,500 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting SECOM is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2027 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 5.0% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 4.3% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 4.4% per year. It's clear that while SECOM's revenue growth is expected to continue on its current trajectory, it's only expected to grow in line with the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥7,070, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple SECOM analysts - going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We also provide an overview of the SECOM Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.