Last week, you might have seen that NBCC (India) Limited (NSE:NBCC) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.3% to ₹92.07 in the past week. Revenues were ₹23b, 18% below analyst expectations, although losses didn't appear to worsen significantly, with a statutory per-share loss of ₹2.67 being in line with what the analyst anticipated. Following the result, the analyst has updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analyst has changed their mind on NBCC (India) after the latest results.
Following the latest results, NBCC (India)'s sole analyst are now forecasting revenues of ₹143.5b in 2027. This would be a meaningful 9.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decrease 9.1% to ₹2.50 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analyst had been modelling revenues of ₹152.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹2.70 in 2027. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.
Check out our latest analysis for NBCC (India)
The analyst made no major changes to their price target of ₹122, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on NBCC (India)'s valuation.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The period to the end of 2027 brings more of the same, according to the analyst, with revenue forecast to display 13% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 13% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 13% annually. So although NBCC (India) is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analyst reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for NBCC (India). They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on NBCC (India). Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have analyst estimates for NBCC (India) going out as far as 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for NBCC (India) that we have uncovered.
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