The Zhitong Finance App learned that Fangzheng Securities released a research report saying that looking forward to the future market, as pig price shocks continue to bottom out and the superposition capacity control policies continue to take effect, the reduction in production capacity that can breed sows is expected to accelerate, and the industry's supply and demand pattern is expected to gradually improve, laying the foundation for a new round of price increases in 2027. It is recommended to focus on large-scale leading enterprises with cost advantages and steady cash flow.
Fangzheng Securities's main views are as follows:
Number of entries
The overall listing volume of key listed pig companies in July continued to decline month-on-month. According to the July pig sales report of listed pig companies, 14 listed pig companies released a total of 145.66 million pigs in July, +3.7% over the previous month. Among the companies that showed a month-on-month increase, Tang Renshen (+12.3%), Zhenghong Technology (+8.8%), and Shennong Group (+7.3%) had higher month-on-month increases; Zhengbang Technology (-14.2%), Jingji Zhinong (-9.2%), and New Hope (-2.3%) had the highest month-on-month declines. The bank believes that the month-on-month increase in the number of pig companies listed on the market in July was mainly due to active listing on the breeding side, compounded by adjustments to some companies' monthly listing plans.
Listed body weight
The bank estimates that all key pig companies released pigs in July were highly differentiated from month to month. The average weight of pigs sold by key listed pig companies was about 120.0kg/head, and the average weight fluctuated greatly between companies. Among them, Jin Xinnong (+15.06%) had a large increase in average listing weight; Superstar Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (-2.42%) and Tianbang Food (-2.32%) dropped significantly. Excluding Jin Xinnong, the number of pigs released by key listed pig companies in July all declined slightly from month to month. The bank believes that it was mainly due to the slow growth rate of pigs due to the adjustment of the pace at the bottom of the pig price shock phase combined with seasonal hot weather.
Average sales price
The average price of pigs sold by 13 key listed pig companies in July was 10.92 yuan/kg, +14.76% over the previous month. The bank believes that the sharp month-on-month rise in pig prices in July was mainly due to a phased tight supply and demand pattern: on the supply side, pig storage was phased out, compounded by secondary fattening to intercept some pig sources, and market supply was tight; on the demand side, although demand for pork was weak during the summer season, supply contraction dominated, and terminal pig prices rose sharply month-on-month.
Risk warning: risk of feed price fluctuations; risk of environmental policy changes; risk of epidemic spread; risk of short-term price fluctuations exacerbated by pressure from the farming side