Franco-Nevada Corporation (TSE:FNV) just released its latest quarterly report and things are not looking great. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 4.3% short of analyst estimates at US$581m, and statutory earnings of US$1.83 per share missed forecasts by 7.9%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
After the latest results, the nine analysts covering Franco-Nevada are now predicting revenues of US$2.57b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 12% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 5.6% to US$8.09. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$2.44b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$8.04 in 2026. So it looks like there's been no major change in sentiment following the latest results, although the analysts have made a small lift in to revenue forecasts.
Check out our latest analysis for Franco-Nevada
Even though revenue forecasts increased, there was no change to the consensus price target of CA$384, suggesting the analysts are focused on earnings as the driver of value creation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Franco-Nevada analyst has a price target of CA$480 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$266. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Franco-Nevada's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Franco-Nevada's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 25% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 8.0% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 13% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Franco-Nevada is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Franco-Nevada going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
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