The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for Metacon AB (publ) (STO:META), with the covering analyst making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts went under the knife, suggesting the analyst has soured majorly on the business.
After the downgrade, the consensus from Metacon's sole analyst is for revenues of kr209m in 2026, which would reflect a disturbing 25% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Losses are expected to be contained, narrowing 13% per share from last year to kr0.05 per share. Yet prior to the latest estimates, the analyst had been forecasting revenues of kr250m and losses of kr0.03 per share in 2026. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analyst administering a notable cut to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.
See our latest analysis for Metacon
The consensus price target fell 17% to kr0.19, with the analyst clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 44% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 50% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 9.2% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Metacon is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses this year, suggesting all may not be well at Metacon. Unfortunately the analyst also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that Metacon's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. Given the scope of the downgrades, it would not be a surprise to see the market become more wary of the business.
Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have analyst estimates for Metacon going out as far as 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies backed by insiders.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.