According to the Oriental Securities Research Report, Kweichow Moutai 26H1 achieved net profit of 44.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.95%, and 26Q2 achieved net profit to mother of 17.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%. Channel reforms have driven a high increase in direct sales, and iMaotai has become the core increase. It is expected to be mainly due to the company's “comprehensive C” reform and the concentration of Flying Standard products into online self-operated channels. At the end of 26H1, the number of domestic/foreign dealers was 2307/119, a net decrease of 46/7 from the end of '25. The domestic changes were mainly serial wine dealers. In the first half of the year, the company deepened its “comprehensive to C” market-based reform. The retail price and sales contract price of the Feitian i Maotai platform were raised twice during the year, and the dynamic price adjustment mechanism and the “self-sale+distribution+proxy sales” system were initially formed; in the first half of the year, the production of Maotai wine and series wine-based wine was 4.1/31,000 tons respectively, and high-quality and stable production continued. It is expected that the price increase will gradually reflect the increase on the reporting side. In the medium to long term, the company's “scarcities+strong brands+high barriers” moat will remain stable. Considering that the commercial consumption recovery process was slightly lower than expected and the profit forecast was slightly lowered, the company's net profit for 2026-2028 is expected to be 835, 884, and 93.3 billion yuan, respectively. Continuing the FCFF valuation method, the predicted target price is 1634.11 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating.

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