The Zhitong Finance App learned that Debon Securities released a research report saying that the inflection point of solid-state battery industrialization is getting closer, and it is recommended to prioritize upstream links with high certainty: one is the equipment side, focusing on areas where the value of dry electrodes and isostatic pressure equipment has increased significantly; the second is the material side, focusing on core incremental materials such as sulfide electrolytes and silicon-based anodes. The medium- to long-term recommendations focus on battery integration leaders with core technical reserves and deep binding to leading car companies.
The main views of Debon Securities are as follows:
Industrial development: policy and capital drive in both directions, and 2027 may become a key point
In the context of global energy decarbonization transformation, traditional liquid lithium batteries are gradually approaching theoretical limits in terms of energy density and safety. Solid-state batteries have multiple advantages such as high safety, outstanding energy density, wide temperature adaptation range, and longer cycle life, and are expected to become the core route for the next generation of energy storage technology upgrades. 1) A complete support system has been formed from the top down at the policy level. Since 2025, top-level design has been implemented intensively. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has listed solid state batteries as a key research direction, the National Energy Administration has clearly addressed key equipment with a long lifespan and a wide temperature range, and the Ministry of Finance has introduced differentiated consumption tax policies to clearly exempt solid state batteries from consumption tax from September 2026 to the end of 2028, and strongly promote industrialization through tax leverage. At the same time, all provinces and cities have responded positively to supporting local industrial policies, implementing special plans in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhuhai, etc., and supporting capital and scientific research platforms to attack the core technology of rugged batteries. 2) Investment and financing in the capital-side industry continued to heat up. In the first half of '26 alone, there were more than 40 investment projects in the solid-state battery sector. Many industrial funds were intensively established, covering everything from research and development of key materials to mergers and acquisitions of the entire industry chain, providing sufficient capital guarantees for technological engineering and industrial upgrading. 3) The pace of mass production has reached a consensus. Currently, the industry has formed a clear path from semi-solid state to full solid state step by step. The industry generally expects semi-solid-state batteries to enter the commercialization cycle in 2026. By 2027, leading companies such as Ningde Times, BYD, and Guoxuan Hi-Tech plan to mass produce or demonstration load all solid-state batteries in small batches, and the pace of industrialization will accelerate significantly.
Technology path: Three major technology routes compete, and sulfides are expected to become the ultimate long-term main line
Solid-state battery technology routes are mainly divided into three categories: sulfides, oxides, and polymers. With its high mechanical strength and chemical stability, the oxide route has become the preferred solution for the transition period for semi-solid batteries. Leading companies such as Ningde Era and Qingtao Energy have achieved loading verification; the polymer route has good flexibility but low room temperature conductivity, mostly as an auxiliary support for flexible scenarios; the sulfide route has the highest room temperature ionic conductivity (up to 10? 2 S/cm level) and a wide electrochemical window, best suited to the high energy density and fast charging needs of vehicles, and is a long-term core track for all-solid-state batteries.
Application scenarios: hierarchical penetration of downstream applications, vehicle storage as basic disk, low-altitude, robotics, etc., or early release
The bank believes that the commercialization of solid-state batteries follows the logic of “tolerating niche scenarios with high costs first, and mass market expansion as costs decline”: future industrial scenarios such as short-term low-altitude economy, physical intelligence, and commercial aerospace are expected to take the lead; medium- to long-term new energy vehicles and energy storage form the core requirements. Demand for new energy vehicles accounts for about 70%, and the ban on sales of fuel vehicles in Hainan will increase in 2030; energy storage is expected to account for 15% to 20%. The safety and long-term cycle properties are highly in line with the hard needs of the energy storage industry, and there is plenty of room for long-term demand.
Industrial chain: value is expected to be released one by one, and equipment and materials will benefit first
The value of the solid-state battery industry chain is expected to be released in stages. On the equipment side, due to the introduction of new processes such as dry electrodes, isostatic pressure, and lamination, the production line transformation ratio is as high as 80%-90%, and the value of a single GWH device is about 3-5 times that of liquid batteries. It will first benefit from the peak of pilot and mass production line construction, and the market growth rate is impressive; on the material side, solid electrolytes (especially sulfides) and silicon-based anodes are the core incremental links. As the semi-solid state iterates to the full solid state, the electrolyte shipment structure may fundamentally reverse negatively. Capacity has become the mainstream choice for anodes and is expected to usher in rapid market expansion; cell end, manufacturing barriers are the highest, head batteries With technology accumulation and scale advantages, enterprises are expected to dominate the market pattern for a long time.
Risk warning: Breakthroughs in core technologies such as solid-state electrolyte interface impedance fell short of expectations, domestic industrialization faced patent layout challenges, competition on other new energy storage technology routes, and downstream demand fell short of expectations