NextDecade (NEXT) has drawn investor attention after recent share price moves, with the stock closing at $6.95 on 18 August 2026. The company focuses on US liquefied natural gas export and carbon capture projects.
See our latest analysis for NextDecade.
Against that backdrop, NextDecade’s share price has pulled back in the short term, with a 30 day share price return down 9.51% and a 90 day share price return down 22.52%, while the year to date share price return of 29.18% contrasts with a 1 year total shareholder return down 28.42%. This hints at volatility as investors reassess both future growth potential and project related risks.
If this kind of price swing has your attention, it can also be a good time to scan other energy infrastructure ideas through our 93 nuclear energy infrastructure stocks
Bulls view NextDecade as a way to gain exposure to US LNG growth and carbon capture projects. Bears focus on zero revenue and ongoing losses. Which side do the current valuation markers support as the stock resets around $6.95?
Most Popular Narrative: 26.1% Undervalued
NextDecade’s most followed valuation story pegs fair value at $9.40 per share versus the last close at $6.95, which frames the current pullback in a very different light.
Early cargo sales of over 175 trillion BTUs at expected margins of more than US$3 per MMBtu and the company’s projection that approximately 3,800 TBtus of early LNG volumes could generate US$1.2b to US$2b of distributable cash flow provide a defined path to use near term cash inflows to reduce term loans and corporate level leverage, which can support future net income.
Want to see what sits behind that early cash flow story? The narrative leans on rapid revenue build out, shifting margins and a future earnings multiple that might surprise you.
Result: Fair Value of $9.40 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, this NextDecade narrative still faces key pressure points, including execution risk at Rio Grande LNG and the burden of sizeable, relatively costly project finance debt.
Find out about the key risks to this NextDecade narrative.
Next Steps
With mixed signals around NextDecade’s risks and rewards, this is a moment to move quickly and stress test the full picture for yourself using the 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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